Jabs of cold until the knock out punch?

Looking at the weather pattern and trends in the modeling, the middle of the month is getting set up to be a major flip in the pattern we are in.   About that time a ridge is predicted to set up over Alaska and the polar vortex is predicted over Baffin Island (see below).  If this comes true, this will send major cold cross polar air down the plains which will spread east.   The NAO and AO are also trending towards negative territory around that time.   Again, if true, this will set up a very cold and wintery pattern for much of North America.   Until then, it looks like we'll be in a back and forth pattern with no major snows on the horizon.