Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Interesting tidbit of info about the weekend cold

Even Env. Can. is not believing their own model.   Just for kicks, I checked out the Canadian model raw temps for Sunday morning and they have Ottawa well into the -20s C.  See map below.   So why is their official forecast for Sunday morning still -17C?   Well, without asking them personally, I've read that it is because they take into account the climatology, ie the "normal" temperatures for a particular place and date.   If a model output is too many standard deviations from the "normal", they adjust temperatures back closer to normal.  And what do you know, the "normal" low temperature for Ottawa is -17C.

TWN forecast low for Sunday morning is currently -19C
Accuweather forecast low for Sunday morning:  -19C
Raw GFS and Euro temps for Sunday morning:  between -25 and -30C

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