Friday, September 27, 2013

The next week or so

Besides a dying cool front of Monday, our streak of nice weather continues until next weekend, the forecast of which makes me very glad I'm having the Fall Classic this weekend rather than next.

Friday Funny

And if I have to explain this one to's a clip from Toy story.

Update to Sea Ice update.

Most datasets have the 2013 Arctic Sea Ice minimum extent as the highest since 2006 except for 2009:

And oh by the way, the Antarctic Sea Ice maximum is at record high values:

New Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) from the IPCC

With the MSM falling over themselves to proclaim how certain scientists are that man is causing global warming...

Some reactions:

I think it also helpful to note that there is a much less emphasis on GHG (greenhouse gases) such as CO2, but also on "other" anthroprogenic changes.  As touched on by Judy Curry post, what will the IPCC say when the current 10 year negative trend (not pause) extends out to 15 or 20 years (as I think it will)?  Will they admit that they were wrong?...not bloody likely.

As I comment in the national post article: This report is out of date already, stillborn, as recent studies that didn't make the deadline for incorporation into this report ARE cast doubt on the severity of AGW. The only way that the IPCC can raise their certainty is by being more certain about a more vague criteria...

But one of my favourite reaction is Ross McKitrick's comment here:

SPM in a nutshell: Since we started in 1990 we were right about the Arctic, wrong about the Antarctic, wrong about the tropical troposphere, wrong about the surface, wrong about hurricanes, wrong about the Himalayas, wrong about sensitivity, clueless on clouds and useless on regional trends. And on that basis we’re 95% confident we’re right.

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

Questions for the IPCC

Marcel Krok, a Dutch scientist and blogger has an interesting post where he lists five questions he would put to the IPCC.  There are probably many a skeptic would like to see definitive answers to these questions.

Dr. Curry has a cross post where she adds one more...

Monday, September 23, 2013

Update to the Tropical Season update

Hurricance forecasters are doing some soul searching after predicting a very active season.
A pic and table tell the tale:

Sunday, September 22, 2013

Welcome to Autumn

The fall Equinox occurred this afternoon.


So my wife and I didn't go camping...due to the weather.
Good thing.  Belleville, relatively near to Sandbanks P.P., had 30 mm of rain yesterday, well over an inch...
Current forecast for the Fall Classic, mild and dry. Woot!

Thursday, September 19, 2013


In weather forecasting timing is key.  You can get the weather right but be off by a few hours and you've blown the forecast.
In planning events, timing can be a b#&$h.   My wife and I are planning a small two-nighter camping getaway starting tomorrow.  As my post Monday indicated, there looks to be weather that will put a damper (haha) on the trip.   Most of the full day that we are away will be cloudy and showery.   IF ONLY the weather that we've had yesterday and today had been a mere two days later...but noooooo.. grumble, grumble, grumble...

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Next IPCC report

Most of you are probably not aware of this, but the UN organization for Climate Change, the IPCC,  is shortly issuing their next report (done every four years), AR5, supposedly showing the current state of climate science.   As you might expect, there is a lot of controversy about it with various "leaks" coming out.   If you're interested, here are some articles about it:

That's for starters...

Monday, September 16, 2013

Late week outlook

Currently there is fairly strong agreement that will come through Friday evening into Saturday morning bring showers, potential thunderstorms and cooler temps.  It'll clear during the day on Saturday and will be sunny but cool for a few days.  According to at least one model, we will have our first frost at some point during the first half of next week.

Friday, September 13, 2013

Quick post

Saturday, clear but cool
Sunday, cold front coming in late in the day bringing chance of showers, maybe with some thunder
Monday should clear out but cooler (risk of frost Monday or Tuesday morn)
Clear until Thursday-ish when the models are starting to get a little muddled as to what's happening.

Colorado floods

You may have heard in the news about the flash flooding in Colorado.   Here is the total rain the SW US over the last 7 days.

At least is will help the so called "permanent drought".

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

Tropical season update..

Wednesday morning update.  It's official, Humberto has tied Gustav for the latest first hurricane of the season.

The record for the latest development of the first Atlantic hurricane of the season is Gustav in 2002 which formed September 11th.
This year Humberto is challenging that record.  It currently is moving west of the Cape Verde islands in the east Atlantic far away from anything, still classified as a tropical storm.  Most experts see Humberto gaining hurricane characteristics within 24 hours.

Regardless, the season has been/is really slow to start with the ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) at 20% of average.

Things that make you go "hmmmm".

11:00 AM forecast for Ottawa's high temperature today is 27 C.
1:00 PM temperature reading at Ottawa airport:  15 C.

Think the forecast high will be reached?   Methinks not.

Sunday, September 8, 2013

Quick note

Env. Can currently has 30 and 29C for forecast highs on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively.   While it will be humid, it will also be overcast and raining, keeping temperatures muted.   So currently I'm sided with TWN which has highs in the 27C range for those days.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

And oh by the way...

Antarctic sea ice is at record high levels.

Canadian Arctic Sea Ice

With temperatures averaging well below zero in most areas:
the melt has pretty much stopped in the Canadian Arctic:
and new ice has begun to form (pink areas):

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

In a cyclic pattern...

We are going to be in a cyclic pattern for the next bit.   The current unsettled-ness is a week cold front after which will be mostly clear but starting with cool temperatures.  The temperature will rise until another cool front on Saturday will bring precipitation, after which will be a cool couple of sunny days gradually getting warmer until a cool front comes through on Wednesday after which...well you get the picture.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

Update to Tropical Storm season...

An update to the update about the tropical storm season.   This August is only the 6th August in over 50 years to have 0 (zero) tropical storms in the Atlantic that have been classified a hurricane.   So the season is approaching the peak time and so far is has been very quiet.  And yet the forecasters are trying to save their forecasts by insisting that the storms are coming...I won't hold my breath.