Thursday, February 28, 2013

Sea Ice update

Since the Arctic peak for sea ice is approaching and I haven't done one of these in a while so I thought I give one.

Arctic:   No time to panic.   Despite the screams of despair from the CCAs (Climate Change Alarmists) about the record (satellite era only) low extent last summer, it's now above average for the 21st century extents.  The area which is contributing primarily to the below long term average is the Barent Sea.  Regarding the record low, there was a study showing that a powerful storm in the arctic last summer broke up the ice sheet somewhat and scattered the pieces which accelerated the melt.   For graphs and maps, see the Sea Ice Data sidebar or see the WUWT reference page here.

Antarctic:  Time to celebrate, but if only you like ice.   The Antarctic sea is approaching it's annual minimum and it's looking like it will finish close to a record HIGH level.   Again taken with a grain of salt being that it's the satellite record only.   However the Southern Oceans Sea Surface temperatures have been lower than average for a number of years (map courtesy of Bob Tisdale).

A little Electrical theory for you.

All hail sequestration

Or maybe not so much...

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Latest snow map from A/W

It makes me nervous but I am not sure I agree with it though.  It doesn't reflect what I am seeing on the various models. While the precip now is a snow/ice pellet mix, which will cut down on the total accumulations, I am still expecting that the precip change over to mainly snow over the next 24 hrs.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

cool beans

Late evening update

Precip is almost at Belleville heading our way.  It'll be here in the morning.  Possible snow day??

Stick with the latest A/W snowmap

It seems to be showing the concensus (average) view of snow totals from the various models.

Post storm

Don't be surprised if temperatures on the weekend and early next week are colder than what Env. Can. is currently calling for:
Saturday:  Sunny. Low minus 8. High minus 1.
Sunday:  A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 12. High minus 3.
Monday:  A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 12. High minus 2.


The latest NAM model is giving us snow in the 12 inch range...  However the GFS isn't as vigorous.  That being said, I trust the NAM more than the GFS for precip amounts.  Waiting for the afternoon models to come in.

Map courtesy of Weatherbell

Updated snowmap

Courtesy of Accuweather again.

Monday, February 25, 2013

Storm this week

Courtesy of Accuweather.  For Ottawa, it looks like the heaviest precip is going to start in the early morning Wednesday and continue through the day.

Friday, February 22, 2013

Some perspective

Just for kicks, I checked the weather at one of Canada's most northern weather stations, Eureka, Nunavut.   It's -49 C there.   Be thankful the Arctic Oscillation is not predicted to go positive any time soon.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

Next week..

Update:  Handy pic from Accuweather. explains the storm shift.

I had to do a double take on the 3:30 Env. Can. forecast this aft (below).   I see that they can't make up their mind whether it'll rain or snow on Saturday.  I think it'll snow mostly.  But that's not what made me double take.   Their high temp for Monday is 6C.  Yes, on the plus side.  So that made me check it out on other models...

We are in an interesting pattern over north america now.  We have an omega block over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec.   Systems coming from the SW run up into that block and then try to skirt around it.   The blizzard currently slamming the American midwest will move NE but only will get to southwestern Ontario, weakens, skirts east and then it gets to east coast to ramp up again.  The system next week Tuesday/Wednesday looks like it get stuck in an eddy over Ontario and so hangs out for 2 or 3 days, giving us light precip.  However there is significant disagreement between the models on this and it looks like they're have a really tough time with this pattern and not dealing well with the low level air temps.  That being said, 6C on Monday may be feasible.  As always, stay tuned.

Issued : 3:30 PM EST Thursday 21 February 2013
Tonight:  Clearing early this evening. Wind northwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light early this evening. Low minus 10.
Friday: Increasing cloudiness. High zero. UV index 3 or moderate.
Friday night: Cloudy. Light snow beginning before morning. Wind east 20 km/h becoming light late in the evening. Low minus 4.
Saturday: Snow or rain. High plus 2.
Sunday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 5. High plus 1.
Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 5. High 6.
Tuesday:  Snow. Low minus 4. High zero.
Wednesday:  Snow. Low minus 4. High plus 2.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

The next week or so...

We will get some shovelable snow Saturday into Sunday...  I don't think it'll rain as Env. Can is currently saying.
Then next system after that looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, again a shovelable event.

Band of snow

The snow we are currently getting is from a band of precipitation that is coming from the north, not the usual south and west.   The band is associated with a "backdoor" front, a frontral boundry that is behind a system heading east, the system that affected us yesterday.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

This aft

The precip coming from the SW has hit Kingston and will be here in a couple hours.   It will likely fall mostly as snow.  However there may be a mix of freezing rain as well.   Care should be taken in the afternoon drive.

Friday, February 15, 2013

And so on...

2cm + last night??
Tuesday's system will sloppy/wet snow as well but we may get 5-10 cms out of it.
The biggey next weekend has faded away...I'm not sure what the models are doing with now.  They have it as a big storm in the American midwest but as it come east, it gets strung out and fizzles..dang.

Thursday, February 14, 2013

Looking forward again...still no change

The clipper precipitation is now east of Toronto and will be in the Ottawa area this evening.   I think it'll be mostly snow.  I have no objections to the 2-4 cm value given by Env. Can.   As an aside, New England/Maine into Eastern Canada will get another thump (much smaller than last week's blizzard) of snow tomorrow into Saturday as a system blows up along the arctic front trailing this clipper.

The system on Tuesday will likely be a mixed bag of precipitation.  The GFS has backed off on the intensity but still gives us 10 cms of snow +/-.   The Euro gives us a snow to rain to snow system with the snow values of a few cms or so.

The system next Friday is still there on both the GFS and Euro and still is a biggey.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Looking change.

Clipper coming through Thursday night/Friday giving a shovelable snow.
GFS is still more gung-ho about the storm next Tuesday than the Euro.
But both are pretty enthusiastic about a storm next Friday/Saturday.
Again, stay tuned.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Looking ahead...

There is a clipper coming through on Thursday night into Friday that will likely give some shovelable snow. 
After the clipper some colder air will come in to bring period of colder than normal temperatures.
Both the GFS and the Euro is seeing a system of significance for our area in about a week's time.  Actually the GFS is giving us a MAJOR storm while the Euro is an okay storm.  Stay tuned for this one.

PS.  We are in a stormy period.  So for the remainder of February, there will be multiple opportunities for snow.

Monday, February 11, 2013

Band of precip coming in

As of 1:48 PM, there is a band of precip between Bancroft and Ottawa, moving this way and will be here in about an hour.  I believe this one will put some ice rain down but not much.  However, care should taken.


This morning's batch of precipitation is pretty much done.  It fell mostly as snow.
There will be scattered precip until another band of precip, currently by Toronto, comes through late this afternoon.  This one will likely be in the freezing rain/rain mode but will be shortlived.

"Complete" storm totals

Accuweather sourced map, so it's showing only US totals.   However, at last check, I saw Ottawa A/P received 25 cms.   Gander, Newfoundland received 53 cms yesterday.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Ottawa Snow totals update

Well it looks like we'll blow through that 15cm mark, if we haven't already. 
Stupid models.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Euro and GFS snow totals

Latest Euro says we getting about 30 cms from the storm on Friday.   The GFS says about 20 cms.

You've been warned.

Friday's storm

It looks like everybody's on board with the storm happening.  The snow that Ottawa will be getting will likely start Thursday evening with the main dump happening Friday morning.   This snow will be from the northern jet stream clipper-like feature.  A note of caution:  there is a chance that a mere 50km shift south in the storm track and we get virtually nothing.  I doubt that will be the case.  A more likely scenario would see a shift northward, giving Ottawa more snow.

Once the clipper feature is past Ontario, it will phase/merge with the southern jet stream feature and "bomb out" along the coast of New England.  Areas from New York to Maine will get inches to feet of snow.   The Maritimes will get blasted Friday evening into Saturday, not that you would know from the Env Canada forecast right now.

Snowmap courtesy of Accuweather.   It's conservative, ie on the low side, in my thinking.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Looks like the Euro wins

The GFS has come around the Euro solution.   The US NE and up into eastern Canada are going to get a pretty good storm and we'll likely get a few inches out of it on top of the few cms we are going to get tonight.

I hope the Euro wins next week as well as it gives us more snow than rain with the Monday/Tuesday system.

Monday, February 4, 2013

No change from yesterday

The divergence in the models starts Friday.   There GFS is still giving us a dusting to couple cms on Friday.  The Euro however is giving us 10+ cms.  
Will be there a convergence tomorrow?  We shall see.

Sunday, February 3, 2013

The coming week

Cold start to the week.
We'll get a dusting to a few cms on Wednesday from a clipper coming through
Thursday night into Friday is a more interesting situation.   GFS gives a "meh" clipper which may give us a shovelable snow (2-5cm).  The Euro on the other hand phases the energy to give the NE US a major dump and us about 10 cms +/-.
The biggest question is next week Monday/Tuesday where the GFS and Euro are cutting a system to the lakes giving us another snow to rain/freezing rain to snow storm.  I am hoping that there will be enough cold air damming for this one to give us mostly snow.  Fingers crossed.

On the bright side, the models are trending again to a cooler last half of February.