Sunday, February 28, 2016

Mixed bag of weather this week

The first half of this week will be stormy and the last half clear and cool.  All maps courtesy of Weatherbell using the GFS model (most models are in fairly close agreement).

Storm # 1 tonight will bring a messy mix tonight of snow to ice pellets to freezing rain to rain back to snow tomorrow.  That sounds very familiar, doesn't it.

Storm # 2 is a weak clipper that will give us just a couple cms or so of snow Monday evening.

Storm # 3 is looking to be a bigger deal Tuesday night into Wednesday as system passes just south of the Great Lakes, giving us mostly frozen precipitation.  Preliminary snowday call for Wednesday.

After Wednesday's system an Arctic high settles in giving clear and cold conditions with overnight lows potentially getting into the -20s C (overnight low Friday morning shown).

Monday, February 22, 2016

Timing of this week's storm

The forecast track is slowly narrowing down to one that has the storm center pass over the lower Great Lakes on a NE course, passing just south of Ottawa.   If this holds, snow will begin late afternoon Wednesday.  By early morning Thursday, there will likely be a change to freezing rain to rain.  Up to 15-20 cms could accumulate before the change to rain.  By late Thursday, there will be a change back to snow.

Friday, February 19, 2016

Next week!

Mentioned a couple days ago on my Twitter feed that model output for next week Tuesday/Wednesday had a similar setup and storm as this week.   The storm is still there on the models in one form or another.  Look for firming of track and precip in the next couple days.

Tuesday, February 16, 2016

Snow amounts as of 6 PM

From Env. Can.
Below is a summary of snowfall amounts received as of 6 pm Tuesday:

Ottawa Airport 49 cm
Gatineau Airport 28 cm
Casselman 35 cm
Moose Creek 21 cm
Cornwall 20 cm
Brockville 25 cm
Kemptville 34 cm
Kingston Airport 30 cm
Trenton Airport 22 cm
Cobourg 13 cm
Welland 11 cm
St Catharines (on escarpment) 22 cm
Fort Erie 25 cm

Monday, February 15, 2016

Sunday, February 14, 2016

Models are lining up for Tuesday's snow...

The ECMWF is still on board with Tuesday snow (not allowed to show its map).  The maps shown are courtesy of Weatherbell.

The GFS:
The NAM:


Thursday, February 11, 2016

Next Tuesday night...

As noted on my twitter feed, all the medium range models are now on board with the storm currently time late next Tuesday.  When the ECMWF backed away the storm to the east, CGEM and GFS jumped on board with the current track.  Then the next run of the Euro moved the storm back to even a further west track which I think will correct back again.  Even so here is the latest GFS.  Fun. 

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Next Wednesday..

For the last three days, the Euro model has consistently shown a snow storm for us next Wednesday (below, map courtesy of Penn State eWall).  GFS and CGEM do not show it.  We shall see.