Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Snow day!!!

Snow will be done in a couple hours or so....But so far:

Weather summary for Southern Ontario and the National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada At 6:51 A.M. EST Wednesday 27 November 2013.

The following is a summary of weather event information received by Environment Canada.

An early season winter storm has brought the first Major snowfall to much of Eastern Ontario as expected, with much of Eastern Ontario receiving 15 cm or more by early this morning. Snow fall warnings will likely be discontinued later today as the snow moves away with the storm centre into Quebec.

The Greater Toronto area was on the edge of this storm, with western portions receiving 2 cm or less, and 4 to 8 cm falling inland from Lake Ontario from about Yonge street and east.


The table below contains total snowfall amounts received by Environment Canada as of 6.00 AM.

Location                     snowfall amount
                              (centimetres)

Ottawa Airport                      20
Richmond (sw part of Ottawa)        18
Casselman                           23
Kemptville                          18
Alexandria                          15
Pembroke (estimated)                 6
Brockville (estimated)              14
Kingston                            15
Trenton                             14
Bancroft (estimated)                 7
Peterborough (estimated)             7
Whitby (estimated)                   6
Toronto Highway 401/Yonge            7
Buttonville Airport                  4
Pearson Airport                      2
St Catharines south end              8

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

END/OSPC

Monday, November 25, 2013

Winter storm watch from Env Can

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
3:41 PM EST Monday 25 November 2013
Winter storm watch for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans issued

First winter storm of the season Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico will bring the first significant snowfall of the season to much of Eastern Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Snow is expected to rapidly overspread the regions Tuesday evening, and then taper off from west to east on Wednesday.

Total snowfall amounts of 15 cm or more are expected in most places with up to 25 cm possible in the Ottawa area. An exception is in the St Lawrence Valley where warmer air could cause the snow to change to rain for a period, reducing amounts. There will also be the risk of freezing rain in easternmost sections.

Furthermore, some areas will see blowing snow on Wednesday.

Poor travel conditions are expected to develop Tuesday evening and continue into Wednesday.

Please refer to your local public forecast for further details.

A/W snow map

Hoowaaa!

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Skiff and a snow

Tomorrow night a skiff/dusting again of snow... looking like a little less than this past Saturday's.

Tuesday night into Wednesday has the potential to get us a thump of snow.   Interestingly the GFS ,who was offshore with the storm yesterday, has now flipped to the inside track and giving the interior NE US, eastern Ontario and southern Quebec a good storm.  It's giving us 8"+.   However the Canadian and Euro are a little less vigorous with a potential 6".    Will be keeping an eye on this one.

PS:  This is a excerpt from a SWS notice from Env. Can.:

Persistent snow squalls from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning resulted in significant snowfall totals in a narrow band extending off of Southern Lake Huron, from around St Joseph (just
east of Grand Bend) southeastward through the west part of London. While this narrow band of snow did not affect any official Environment Canada weather monitoring stations, unofficial reports
received from the public suggest that up to 70 centimetres of snow fell in the hardest hit parts of this corridor.

Saturday, November 23, 2013

Interesting battle

In yesterday's post I showed a snow map.  Note the high accumulations on the eastern seaboard up into the western maritimes and eastern Quebec.   Most of that accumulation is coming from a storm they are predicting to ride up the east coast into New Brunswick and eastern Quebec Tuesday night into Wednesday.   The Euro still has that storm in this morning's model run with similar accumulations with a glancing blow to our area (1-2")  The GFS has the storm well enough offshore that it hardly the US but hits the Maritimes.   The Canadian is in the Euro camp.  It'll be interesting to see who wins out.

In other news, the snow guns of LES (Lake Effect Snow) are blazing away.  The Env Can. warnings are stating that accumulations in some areas could be 15-30cm per 12 hour period!!!

Friday, November 22, 2013

A hole in the snow

Right over us.   A map of the Euro snowfall total over the next 10 days..

 
 
Missing us right and left.... bummer.

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

Update on the weather

Looks like the plow-able snows have gone off the table for Friday night into Saturday.   We'll likely get a coating to an inch or so.  Very cold Sunday into Monday and another skiff of snow on Monday night into Tuesday.   Generally staying colder than normal into month-end into December.

Note the Lake Effect Snow guns are going to be firing on all cylinders for the next while.   Snow-belts will be buried, if you're going that way.

Message to all my loyal subscribers...

All six of you (ha!).

Recently my ability to post during weekday daytime hours has severely reduced to almost nil.    So short of getting a schmrt phone and posting with that, my posts during the week will be limited to evenings.  And since my evenings are soooo wide open (sarc), the posts may be limited to a couple a week.   I know, I'm bummed about too.  So be patient.   I am trying to work how best work this.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Snow on Saturday

Models are trending toward a shovelable snow event Friday night on into Saturday, depending on the model..
GFS: 4-6"
Euro: 6" plus 
Can: 3-5 "

Friday, November 15, 2013

This post will make me no friends

Looking towards winter.  Whilst I have not prognosticated about the coming winter on this blog, I have speculated with a couple of my friends what I'm looking at namely....

A snowier and colder winter than we have had of late, especially in the front end.   Naturally, things are more hazy farther out.  But I've been reading a lot of discussions and looking at the tendency in forecasts.   The trend for December has been toward a colder than normal December.  That usually means a snowier December as well as Ottawa will the in the battle ground between cold and warm.

The latest CFS:
A discussion of the Euro weekly forecast is here (Brett of Accuweather).  Both it and the GFS ensembles show that winter will start virtually now for the western provinces and cold air will become emplaced there.  How much of that cold air will make its way east to our area is the uncertain part.   With the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also trending negative, that indicates more eastern troughs which will bring the cold east.

And then there's Weatherbell with my man Joe Bastardi whose forecast for December is to make everything cold.  FUN!  :)

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Coming week...

My suggestion, for what it's worth, take it or leave it, is to get your final outdoor fall clean up done this Saturday.   It is going to be relatively mild and dry, even pleasant to be outside on Saturday.   Rake those leaves, clean those gutters, take in the garden hoses...

The rest of this week is going to get milder.  A system going NE through the western Great Lakes will bring precip late Sunday into Monday.   The cold front associated with this system will pass through late Monday into the overnight and so Tuesday and Wednesday will be much colder (like yesterday and today).

Back and forth pattern to continue the next couple of weeks, or so the models say...

Saturday, November 9, 2013

So it's snowing now...

It's the smattering of snow that earlier in the week I had thought would arrive Sunday.   Off by a day.   So sue me..

Snow cover update

As noted last week, the western provinces have largely been covered with snow.

Annnnnd it's gone...

The storm for later next week has dissppeared off the models, for good I think at this point.

I think the precip will hold off long enough for the Rememberance Day services to take place without getting wet.   Getting cold Tuesday.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Still there...

Models flip flop away.  GFS currently doesn't have the storm late next week but the Euro had it, didn't have it, and now it has it again.   Currently the timing is Thursday evening into Friday with the Euro printing out about 8-10 inches of wet snow.   Fun!

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Something to keep an eye out

Forget Sunday (which by the way the Euro and Can. is still predicting a smattering of snow).   Next Wednesday into Thursday is predicted to have some very interesting weather according to BOTH the Euro and the GFS.  Let's just say I may get my snow tires on sooner rather than later.   Here is a map of snow accumulation in inches next Wednesday evening, with the bullseye right over Ottawa.

Monday, November 4, 2013

T.D.o.S

Booya

This week.

Warming up until a rain event Wednesday evening into Thursday morning with a return to cooler temperatures thereafter.
Interesting alliance happening with respect to next Sunday's weather.  The Canadian model is allied with the Euro for a possibility of snow on Sunday whilst the GFS gives us mostly another rain event.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Canadian snow cover.

An update to my "prediction" wrt to Canadian snow by the end of October, here is the map of snow cover as of yesterday.  While there was some melting from a few days ago, the snow cover fell short of my prediction.   However, over the next week, the western half of the Country will get a lot whiter.