Thursday, January 31, 2013

The next week or so.

Short post.  All I've got time for.

Rapid freeze happening.  Temp is dropping relatively fast (14 degrees in the last 12 hours) plus wind equals freezing puddles and crusty snow.
We'll have cold temps for the next week or so with scattered flurries here and there as the first couple of weak clippers largely miss us to the south.   Next systems of significance is next weekend...but that is more than a week away so we'll see.

Amazing Lake Effect Snow Radar

Composite (Canadian and American combined) radar image of the snow squalls as of 11 AM.

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Latest warning from Env. Can.

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
2:54 PM EST Tuesday 29 January 2013
Freezing rain warning for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued

Freezing rain expected to develop late this afternoon and tonight.

An area of low pressure over the mid west states is expected to bring rain and freezing rain over portions of south Central and Eastern Ontario.

At 3 PM radar is indicating little in the way of organized precipitation over the warned area. However a northward moving warm front is expected to generate bands of precipitation this evening which will fall as freezing rain as temperatures remain below the freezing mark.

The warm front will finally pass through the Ottawa Valley into Quebec by Wednesday morning, with a changeover to rain and much milder temperature expected.

Untreated roads will likely become icy and treacherous over many regions. Motorists and pedestrians should exercise caution and allow for extra time to reach their destination.

Please refer to the public forecast for further details.

Is the coldest of the winter behind us?

It's starting to look like.   The models have retreated from bringing in the bone chilling cold back in our area.  We will get cold again but more in the "normal" range and not to the -20 to -30 C range like we had last week.  Normals temperatures are on their way back up.  The days are getting longer.  It will be tougher to get extreme cold in.

So for this week, after a bit of freezing rain this evening and tonight, there'll be a change over to straight rain.  It'll be a not insignificant rain, likely a centimeter or two if the precipitation pattern goes the way of the models.   The cold front will come through overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.  We may see some snow on the backside of this system as the cold comes in.  The temperature will drop as the day progresses on Thursday.  Beyond Thursday will see scattered flurries with a clipper or two in the books for next week.  Maybe.  There is a lot of divergence in the models beyond day 5.

Monday, January 28, 2013

Quick post

All I have time for.

The only beef I have with the current Env. Can. forecast (below) is the high temps for Wednesday and Thursday.   I think we won't be getting to double digits on Wednesday and we won't get above OC on Thursday.  I am a little iffy on the second one especially, since the timing of the cold front is crucial.  If it come a little slower, then the Thursday high will come in the wee hours of the morning.

Today: Snow at times heavy. Amount 5 to 10 cm. High minus 8.
Tonight:  Snow ending late this evening then cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Risk of freezing drizzle late this evening and overnight. Amount 2 cm. Temperature steady near minus 9.
Tuesday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries in the morning and early in the afternoon. Freezing rain beginning early in the afternoon then changing to rain late in the evening. Risk of freezing drizzle in the morning and early in the afternoon. High minus 1.
Wednesday: Rain. Low plus 2. High 14.
Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud. Low plus 2. High plus 2.

Friday:  Sunny. Low minus 14. High minus 8.
Saturday:  Cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 18. High minus 10.
Sunday:  Periods of snow. Low minus 13. High minus 9.

Friday, January 25, 2013

Last post before the weekend

Not much to add from my previous posts. 
After Sunday it's going to warm up.   The models are aligning with a wet messy storm Tuesday into Wednesday.   The GFS and Euro have timing differences with the arrival of the storm and the cold front after it.  The GFS is about a day later than the Euro which has the storm coming on Tuesday and cold front on Wednesday.
Indications are that the next batch of cold air will give colder than normal conditions for the first two week of February.  Good for Winterlude.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Satellite view of the Lake Effect snow squalls

Taken yesterday:

The next week and beyond

Continuing cold the next few days with minus stupid temperatures (as my sis-in-law calls them).  Next Monday through Wednesday will be a "mild" period before more stupid temperatures come in for the next week or two.  Next Tuesday/Wednesday may even see a snow to freezing rain/rain, back to snow type storm, as the various models currently look.

Monday, January 21, 2013

The coming week or so

A dusting tonight.
Brrrrrrrrrrrrr for Wednesday and Thursday.  Okay this whole week is brrr.
Friday we'll likely get another dusting as the "Colorado Clobber" I mentioned last week goes well south of us.  US NE to get a nice storm though.
Gradual warmup through the weekend with the warmest days being next Monday/Tuesday (how warm TBD, likely close to 0C again).  Cold reloads after that...gangbusters.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Well, I was wrong about the rain...

Win some, lose some.  Even a blind squirrel (Env. Can) finds a nut now and again.

A word to the wise, anything you don't want frozen rock solid for the next week or so, better move it.

Friday, January 18, 2013

Comment on Latest Env. Can. forecast

I still don't see it raining tomorrow.  There is really no support for it(temperature wise in the 850mb area) in the other models.    Notice they don't give a low temp for Sunday.   Curious.  Anyway, I think Sunday's low temp of about -15C will come in the evening as the cold front comes through Sunday afternoon.  

On a side note the Lake Effect snow machine will kick it into high gear this coming week in typical snow belt areas.   So if you in the lee of the lakes, look out.

Issued : 3:30 PM EST Friday 18 January 2013
Tonight: Increasing cloudiness. Snow beginning this evening. Amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind becoming south 20 km/h after midnight. Temperature rising to minus 4 by morning.
Saturday:  Snow becoming mixed with periods of rain early in the afternoon. Snowfall amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind southwest 20 km/h. High plus 2.
Saturday night: Snow at times mixed with rain. Snowfall amount 2 cm. Local blowing snow. Wind southwest 30 km/h gusting to 60. Low minus 4.
Sunday:  A mix of sun and cloud. High minus 2.
Monday:  Sunny. Low minus 20. High minus 18.
Tuesday:  Sunny. Low minus 25. High minus 21.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Comments of the latest Env. Can. forecast

10:24PM update. As of 10:00PM, it's -19.4C. Do ya think it's going to get colder than -20???

The forecast is at the end of this post.

Friday morning will be colder than -20C, more like -23C. The daytime high will happen late in the evening as the clipper comes in.
Saturday: While there is support for surface temperatures close to 0C in other models, I am loath to believe it. I think it will remain below 0C. I definitely think any precipitation is in the form of snow.  
Sunday: daytime low temps will come later in the day and will be much lower than -5C. I wouldn't be surprised if we get to -15C or lower Sunday evening.
Monday: the daytime high will come in the wee hours of the morning, like right after midnight. The low temp will come in the evening. I would be surprised if it hovered around -20C during the day.

The GFS and Euro looking at a Colorado clobber next Friday...I am not sure I am trusting their solution yet...

Issued : 3:30 PM EST Thursday 17 January 2013
Tonight: Clear. Becoming partly cloudy before morning. Low minus 20.
Friday: A mix of sun and cloud. Becoming sunny in the morning. Increasing cloudiness late in the afternoon. High minus 10.
Friday night: Cloudy. Snow beginning early in the evening. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind becoming south 20 km/h before morning. Temperature rising to minus 3 by morning.
Saturday: Snow or rain. High plus 1.
Sunday: Flurries. Low minus 5. High minus 5.
Monday: Sunny. Low minus 24. High minus 16.

Wednesday, January 16, 2013

Hey, hey, lookee here

The latest Env. Can forecast for Friday morning low temp?
Thursday night:  Clear. Low minus 22.

I knew they'd come around.

Tuesday, January 15, 2013

Next chance for snow

Is Saturday evening into Sunday.  It looks like will get about 10-15 cms.  After which....brrrrr.

Update...Here is the brrr map:

Env. Can. temperature forecasts

Last week I noted that the forecast highs for Ottawa over the weekend were too high (9C or higher).  Indeed I was correct.   The actual highs were 6.5 and 6.3 C for Sat. and Sun. respectively.

Now there is a new specific case:  Friday morning low.  Currently Env. Can. forecast is for a low of -16C.   There are multiple models (GFS, Euro, NAM) with forecast morning low temperatures lower than -20C.  I will wager that over the next day or two Env. Can. forecast temperature will get lower.   I will take the over/under bet that the Friday morning low will be -20C or lower.

Monday, January 14, 2013

The cold front was late

The cold front was a little slower than I anticipated.  The wind shifted between 3 and 4 this morning.  As such things didn't cool down as soon as I thought, so the lack of a bit of fresh snow this morning.   But good things come to those who wait....

Sunday, January 13, 2013

Cold front coming tonight

About midnight-ish.  Peterborough has dropped 6C in the last few hours.  It's currently in the Bancroft area-ish.  Don't be surprised if we see some fresh white stuff tomorrow morning.

Over the next week or so there will be a couple clippers that will sweep arctic air in behind, bring progressively colder air.  The first one is Thursday.  It passes to our north so its snow impact is minimal.  The one that will release the Arctic hounds will be a week today.   I fully expect daytime highs in the -20s and night time lows in the -30s at some point next week.    Expect rapid Great Lake freeze up to occur over the last half of January.

Friday, January 11, 2013

Can't say I didn't warm you

Current GFS temperature anomoly for the week starting the 19th is showing more than 10C below normal.  Remember, the coldest days of the year on average are the 19 thru 21st.   I'd love to show you a map but Blogger is not allowing pic uploads from desktops for some reason.   I'll see if I can post one tonight.

Freezing rain

We will get a period of freezing rain/showers starting in about an hour.  It should last only a few hours and change over to straight rain showers mid-afternoon.

Thursday, January 10, 2013

Some global temperature perspective

Temperature Anomolies Dec 26, 2012 to Jan 1, 2013

Temperature Anomolies, Jan 2, 2013 to Jan 8, 2013

Mind boggling impact of Sandy

Huh, what???

The latest Special Weather Statement from Env. Can. (at bottom) reinforces my impression that they need to look at real world data and not just the output of computer models.   Stick your head out the door for crying out loud.   I highlighted the section that really got me.   Give your head a shake!!!   As of yesterday, there was more than a foot or two of snow over most of eastern Ontario (Ottawa, Kemptville, Cornwall).   The likelihood that most or all going to melt in the next couple days given the hard freeze tonight, the fairly significant snow cover south of us and moderate rainfall amounts, is next to none.  A snowball has a better chance surviving hell.

A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and Friday.  This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into Southern Ontario.

Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over regions in Southern Ontario.  There is also very good potential of freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region.  A freezing rain warning has been issued for those regions.

On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas.  Temperatures in a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas, making it feel more like late April.

As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday.  Most if not all of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at


Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Hydro rates

I put the blame squarely on McGuinty's Green energy initiatives.

Saturday and beyond

Env. Can today INCREASED its forecast high for Saturday to +11C !!  I still have my severe doubts as none of the US based and Euro models are seeing it.

As an aside, the GFS has backed off from it's predicted depth and duration of the cold snap coming to our area, even in its Ensembles.  However the Euro is still cold.

Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Rest of the week into next..

A mild week with a skiff of snow tomorrow followed by a very brief cool down Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  
Friday will likely see some rain showers, possibly beginning as freezing drizzle.
Saturday will be the warmest day.  Env. Can. currently has +9C as the forecasted high.   I don't think we will get that high.  I think we will get to only to the mid single digits.  We have our deep snow cover to thank for keeping our temperatures moderated.
The slow moving cold front will come in Sunday/Monday.  Multiple "waves" along the front will be laying down some precipitation.  Currently our best chance looks be on Monday for a few cms of snow.
Next week it will progressively get colder with both the GFS and Euro giving us temperatures well into the -20 to -30C range by the weekend.

Sunday, January 6, 2013

Shades of '85

The latest GFS Ensembles have an day 8-14 analogue 96% (!) correlation with the end of January, 1985.   If so, brrrrrr.   If that's the case, a polar vortex settles over Hudson Bay and delivers a stream of cold Arctic air.

Jan 28th to Feb 3rd, 1985

Saturday, January 5, 2013

Getting colder...

GFS Ensembles prediction of temperature anomalies in the 5-10 day period, then the 10-15 period.   Poor suckers on the prairies.  (courtesy of Weatherbell).

Friday, January 4, 2013

January thaw?

It's starting to look like we will get a 5+ day period of mild temps starting next week, ending about mid-month or so (differences between Euro and GFS).  There likely will be some rain-to-snow storms in there as well....The last 1/2 of the month will be very cold starting the plains spreading to the east.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Longer range look

Both the GFS and Euro are showing a storm next weekend coming through the Great Lakes (track TBD) after which there is debate on temperature trends.   The GFS is much colder with Western cold spreading East such that much of Canada is colder than normal (below curtesy of Weatherbell).   The Euro essentially ends winter for us.  Well not literally, but it has only western Canada colder than normal for the next few weeks.