The latest Special Weather Statement from Env. Can. (at bottom) reinforces my impression that they need to look at real world data and not just the output of computer models. Stick your head out the door for crying out loud. I highlighted the section that really got me. Give your head a shake!!! As of yesterday, there was more than a foot or two of snow over most of eastern Ontario (Ottawa, Kemptville, Cornwall). The likelihood that most or all going to melt in the next couple days given the hard freeze tonight, the fairly significant snow cover south of us and moderate rainfall amounts, is next to none. A snowball has a better chance surviving hell.
A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into Southern Ontario.
Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over regions in Southern Ontario. There is also very good potential of freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region. A freezing rain warning has been issued for those regions.
On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas, making it feel more like late April.
As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca