Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Missing us by thaaaat much....again.

Sick of the US NE and the Maritimes getting pummelled again and again.

24 hr snowfall on Monday.

Env. Can. flip

Their 3:30 PM forecast release for the weekend:

Saturday, 1 March:  Cloudy with 60 percent chance of snow. Low minus 17. High minus 3.
Sunday, 2 March:  A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 10. High minus 7.

Just sayin'.

I really don't get Env. Can....

Here is their weekend forecast issued 8:52 AM today:

Saturday, 1 March:  Sunny. Low minus 18. High minus 5.
Sunday, 2 March:  Sunny. Low minus 9. High minus 5.

You would never know that their own Canadian model has about a 1/2 inch liquid equivalent precipitation in that time period which would give us a few inches of snow.

The other models also show precipitation during that time period, albeit with slightly different timing and intensity.

The Weather Network does have the snow in their forecast.

Monday's bigger storm has slid south of us on the modelling...:(

Monday, February 24, 2014

March temps..

Updated with Accuweather's March temp forecast...

As there doesn't seem to be much in store, snow wise, for our area until early next week.  There will be coatings to a few cms Wednesday and Thursday but nothing significant.   As indicated in previous posts, the Feb close out will be cold and the beginning of March will be cold.  But what does the various parties say about March temps in total?





Wednesday, February 19, 2014

another quick one

One of the effects of the shifting pattern is where the storms go.   There will be a powerful storm heading north passing over Lake Superior Thursday night into Friday (snow map below), well to the west of us.  It's such a powerful storm that the associated cold front is like a big giant comma with the leading edge well east of the storm center (second map below).   So for us, we may see the precipitation start as snow late Thursday, change over to rain and or freezing rain and possibly change back to snow briefly late Friday as the cold front comes through.   I think Saturday will struggle to get above OC (Env Can and TWN have highs of 3 and 2 respectively on Sat).

Late next week will be very cold.

Monday, February 17, 2014

Snow, warmup and beyond

Updated snow map for tonight/tomorrow.

Will warm up significantly this week until Friday.  Warmest will be Thursday night with some rain.

February will go out and March will come in like a polar bear...

Day 5 to 10

Day 10 to 15

Saturday, February 15, 2014

Rough snow map for monday's storm

Most of the models have the storm going south of us and weaker.  We'll be lucky to get 5cm again.

Friday, February 14, 2014

Another quick update..

Yesterday was interesting.  While I hadn't had a chance to look at the weather in a day or so, the east coast storm had apparently blown up on the short range models, speading the precipitation farther north and west from originally thought.   So when a subscriber told me of the current forecast, I couldn't believe it until I went and looked.   Hence last night's post.

Moving on, to Monday's storm.  Yesterday, the models had Monday's storms pretty much in the same place and intensity.  Now?  Poof.  Well not exactly.  The Euro is still giving us the most intense system with up to 6".    The Canadian has gone south with it and the GFS is much weaker and dispersed.  Who to believe.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

map update

I'm seeing about 5 cms, maybe more if ratios are high..precip shield from east coast storm spreading north and west... map from Accuweather...
Monday's storm is a bigger deal than this for us..

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Quick update on the two storms...

Updated map:

Next week Monday's system is on the Euro, GFS, and Can..  So relatively high confidence that we will get something on Monday...ish.

Quick post...

Nothing much happening for us..  The snow potential that was for Thursday has shifted to the US NE with a major storm happening.  See map below.

Looks we will warm up a bit but there will be some mild temps in a back and forth pattern coming down the road for us later next week after a potential snow storm next Monday/Tuesday.  

Friday, February 7, 2014

Another just for fun map...

The latest Euro snow map for 16th...

The next week or so...

The storm that was supposedly coming Sunday fizzled out and well to the south.  So the next week will be pretty meh.   The temps will be at worst a little below normal, not too frigid.  It looks like the next snow of significance is next Thursday...

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, February 5, 2014

What if...

I've been meaning to post this for a while.

What if this happened in this decade or this year...   The Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Disruption alarmists/fanatics would have a hey day.   Just sayin'.

Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Snow or no...

Quick post on the flip flop of Env. Can.   Yesterday's afternoon forecast had dropped any mention of snow for Ottawa proper.  However this afternoon's forecast they are calling for 5-10 cms.   This is all due to the RGEM, Env Can. short term model making adjustments where it thinks precipitation is.  I can sympathize with their predicament.   On all models there is a sharp demarcation between no snow and a bunch.  On all models, the northern edge of snow stretches from Lake Huron by southern Georgian Bay to the Ottawa region.   20-40 km separates no snow from this system to at least several cms.   We could have a situation we Ottawa proper get a dusting while Kemptville get 10 cms.  Or we cold have a situation where Pembroke gets zip and Ottawa gets the few cms worth.  There is a small margin of error.

So, if its snowing tomorrow morning when you get up, then it's likely we'll get at least a few cms.

Monday, February 3, 2014

Wednesday snow map

Not much snow for a while...

Officially Ottawa received about 18cms this past weekend.  So definitely on the low end of the 15-30 range.

The next few storms will be largely passing to our south.  Currently there is a storm hitting the US NE (radar pic below).  Wednesday's storm may give us a few cms (second map) but will largely pass us to south (but affect southern Ontario too). The storm next Sunday/Monday (third map) will again largely pass to the south, if current model outputs are correct.