Tuesday, February 4, 2014

Snow or no...

Quick post on the flip flop of Env. Can.   Yesterday's afternoon forecast had dropped any mention of snow for Ottawa proper.  However this afternoon's forecast they are calling for 5-10 cms.   This is all due to the RGEM, Env Can. short term model making adjustments where it thinks precipitation is.  I can sympathize with their predicament.   On all models there is a sharp demarcation between no snow and a bunch.  On all models, the northern edge of snow stretches from Lake Huron by southern Georgian Bay to the Ottawa region.   20-40 km separates no snow from this system to at least several cms.   We could have a situation we Ottawa proper get a dusting while Kemptville get 10 cms.  Or we cold have a situation where Pembroke gets zip and Ottawa gets the few cms worth.  There is a small margin of error.

So, if its snowing tomorrow morning when you get up, then it's likely we'll get at least a few cms.

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