Thursday, December 31, 2015

Happy New Year...a look forward

Happy New Year all!  I hope 2016 is fantastic for you all.

Short term look:
- Milder than normal temps until Sunday
- a few cms of snow Saturday night

Mid term look:
- Much colder Monday thru Wednesday, getting into the -20s C overnight.
- Rumours of another storm next weekend.

Longer term look
- General agreement in models that mid January will turn to cold, with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures (see maps below courtesy of Weatherbell).




Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Latest radar loop...

Looks like one major band is starting to cross the Eastern Ontario region.


Enjoy this snow... it'll be the last one of significance for at least a week. 

Longer term, look for mid January for true winter to start for the areas that were warm in  December.



Monday, December 28, 2015

Lastest snow map

From the NAW/WRF model (map courtesy of Weatherbell), no change in timing:  late tonight to late tomorrow.

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Tuesday's snow

Snow will start late evening Monday or early morning of Tuesday, ending in the evening.  Most modeling is showing 6-10" of accumulations.

Here is the 60 hr snow totals from the NAM, map courtesy of Weatherbell.


Saturday, December 26, 2015

Wouldn't that be fun...

Five day snow total from the CGEM (map below courtesy of Weatherbell). 

Tonight precip starts late this evening as snow, changes over to ice pellets/freezing rain until mid-morning-ish with a change back to snow.

The next system will start late Monday in SW Ontario, moving NE hitting the Ottawa area by Tuesday morning.  More precise precip types/totals coming tomorrow as short range models start outputting for Tuesday.

Friday, December 25, 2015

I'm baaaacckkk...for some snow

For the holidays at least when there's snow in the forecast.  My predicament: no blog access at work, no time in the evenings.  The result, no posts.

Anyway, between now and Wednesday, we could get up to 30+ cms of snow, some this Sunday, most Tuesday.  Confidence is pretty high of significant accumulations, from the GFS (shown below, courtesy of Weatherbell) to ECMWF (heaviest north of Ottawa area) to CGEM which thumps us.

Sunday, July 12, 2015

More western rain coming...

Lots of fires burning in western Canada and Alaska:
 
The rain over the last couple days has had some effect on the fire danger:
 
There is more rain over next week for the affected regions so hopefully more fire containment can occur.

Thursday, July 9, 2015

BC/Alberta/Praire fire relief

GFS (and Euro) calling for significant rain in the prairie provinces over the next week or so.  That should help fire fighting efforts.

Yes, its been a while

Life has been busy, and weather hasn't been all that exiting..
But winter is coming...:)

Friday, May 22, 2015

Frost Advisory for tonight..

Env. Can. Advisory:

2:01 PM EDT Friday 22 May 2015
Frost Advisory in effect for:
  • Ottawa North - Kanata - OrlĂ©ans
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
Frost may destroy fruit crops, vegetables, and other plants.

Wide spread frost is expected. Under clear skies and calm winds, ground temperatures overnight and early Saturday morning are expected to be at or a few degrees below freezing. The exception is for areas very close to the Great Lakes where temperatures will remain a couple of degrees above freezing.
Take preventative measures to protect frost-sensitive plants and trees.

Weather Advisories for Frost are issued when temperatures are expected to reach the freezing mark during the growing season, leading to potential damage and destruction to plants and crops.

Map courtesy of Accuweather.  I think Southern Ontario will be hit harder than implied by this map, eg Guelph and area will be hitting neg values.



Texas drought

Extreme drought erased in Texas as rainfall reaches many time normal.



Wednesday, April 15, 2015

A look ahead

Remaining mild and spring like for the next week or so.  Monday/Tuesday look to be quite wet.  Later next week will have a cooling trend with below normal temps likely.. But not snow.  I think there no more snow this spring...unlike the US front range.  Ouch. (map courtesy of Weather Bell)

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Quick post again...

Am I getting out of Dodge just in time?
Maybe.  Total snow over the next 10 days about a foot, according to the ECMWF.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

A quick look ahead.

Snow tonight, 2-4cms looking like.
Warmup to rain on Thursday.
Back and forth pattern for the next while but generally cooler than normal.
HOWEVER, it is looking like mid-April for the flip to real spring.

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Looking forward...

The next couple days will see us get the coldest air on the planet, relative to normals. It will be about 11 degrees C below normal but will moderate as the week progresses.
Thursday will see a small system coming that will be milder than today, giving more precip of the liquid kind than frozen.   Likely another cold shot next weekend.
Longer term, unfortunately the mean temperatures will continue to be colder than normal, likely until at least mid April, interspersed by warm day teases.
The next two weeks according to GFS Ensembles, maps courtesy of WeatherBell.

Week 1

Week 2

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Looking forward...

It's been a nice couple of days and the snow is melting fast.  Yet as I have been twittering (ahem @YFNWG_Ott), winter isn't done.   A cold front is coming through this evening dropping temperature more than 15 degrees from current temperature.   There will be merging of a clipper and a storm coming from the south on Saturday (see pic from A/W)  This will give us 5+ cms of snow Saturday into Sunday.   The GFS and Euro are more enthusiastic about the snow than the Canadian.

Beyond that, after a day or so of mild temps early next week, there will be a period of below normal temps with the obligatory chances for snow.  There is indication on the ensemble models that this will generally be the case into April.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

Quick post from TKD

Waiting for the boys at TKD,  admiring the full moon on a crisp evening.  

After the cold in the next couple of days, we will get a few cms of snow on Saturday and a flurry or two on Sunday.  Tuesday through Thursday will be mild, slightly above normal.

Again, I've joined the twitter-sphere @YFNWG_Ott mainly to provide more up to date weather information and news.  And whatever else catches my fancy.   The blog will remain for longer posts.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Longer term

Initial indications are that a mid-March period starting about the 13th will be milder than normal, a thaw so to speak.

However, indications are also that this will not last indefinitely.  Late March into early April is looking cooler than normal.

Snow maps

To illustrate my previous post.


Sunday, March 1, 2015

Pushed south again...

As you may have noticed, we didn't get near the snow today as earlier predicted. The models are underestimating the strength of the arctic highs coming down.  As such, the system is getting shuffled south.  Similarly, the system on Tuesday/Wednesday is getting pushed south and split such that a weaker system is affecting us late Tuesday with a 5-10 cm snow.  The stronger system will be farther south (W. Virginia) giving 12+" dump in that area.

Foiled again.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Pattern shift ahead

Beginning this week, the mean trough position will shift west.  To date the trough has been centered over eastern North America.  Over the next couple weeks, that will shift to the center of the continent.  That will allow southern branch systems (Colorado lows) to affect the eastern side of the trough, ie Ontario.   Sunday will see the first of these systems affecting Ontario with Ottawa catching the northern edge per current model output.  The bigger deal, again according to the models, is the system on Wednesday, currently predicted to give us 20-30 cms of snow, possibly mixed with ice rain, a messy situation.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Thursday, February 19, 2015

And its gone...

Again in unison, the models have backed off the weekend for us, moving it south and weaker.   The fact that all models showed the back and forth shift leads me to believe that there was something about the initial conditions dataset yesterday that caused the shift.  That has been corrected and now all models are putting the majority of the snow well south of us.
I am beginning to despair that Ottawa will get any major snow event this season.  Yet hope remains: March in like a lion...

Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Interesting development in the models

As you may remember, a couple days ago the Euro was dumping us with snow this coming weekend.  In following runs it was a lot less enthusiastic and more south, coming in line with other models.

However in the latest runs of the GFS, Euro, NG, and Canadian, the track has moved north.  The Canadian so much so that it shows the main band of snow to our north and the Ottawa area has a change over to rain.   Now I don't think that will happen.  I think the Euro and GFS will be more correct with the storm track just south of the lakes, giving us a 10-15 cm dump on Sunday.

Look for forecasts for the weekend to change later this afternoon once the models are processed into the forecast.

Coldest part of the planet..

Is us...relative to average that is.

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Quick post from the bus..

Cold coming gangbusters.
A clipper originally predicted to go south of us will give us a glancing blow on Saturday.  The US models are more north on the track than the Euro and as such, giving us more snow.   So as of now, we could get anywhere between 2 and 10 cms.   This clipper will intensify of the coast and bomb the maritimes.
Chance of even colder air in the 7-10 day period.
A system coming from the south may make things interesting late next week too.

Monday, February 9, 2015

Even I am starting to feel sorry for the Maritimes...

Predicted snowfall over the next ten days...on top of the feet of snow they already have.   The weak clippers that we get intensify up into big storms once they hit the Gulf stream.

Next clipper

The next clipper will bring us 5-10 cms of snow (with potential for more) Wednesday night into Thursday, giving a potential snow day Thursday.

Afterwards, some of the coldest air of the season is coming in for the weekend.

Friday, February 6, 2015

Another.. "oh please, oh please, oh please"

This time from the NAM, the shorter range model cousin of the GFS. The map below shows total snowfall over the next 72 hours.  If true, and I am a little optimistic, that should fill in the snow hole somewhat.  So far only TWN is giving a hint with its 10-15cms over the course of the weekend.


Wednesday, February 4, 2015

No sign of cold letting up...

Today's fluff was a high ratio snow.  There wasn't a lot of moisture falling but it's looking about 10 cms worth so far.  Looking ahead, no major snows for us currently in the models.   Cold still reigns.  Good for Winterlude.

Week 1


Week 2






Great Lake ice cover is at 50%, higher than normal (~30%). Lake Erie is completely covered.

Monday, February 2, 2015

Sigh...again

We got some snow from this one but southern Ontario to the east coast and maritimes have/will get hammered from this one.

Looking ahead, it's still looking like we will get a coating to a few cms on Wednesday and possibly more than a few cms on the weekend.  Cold still reigns.

Sunday, February 1, 2015

Those couple of models...

Were more right than the others. Still the system is tracking more north than these.    Oh well.  Weather dynamics is fun, right?

Saturday, January 31, 2015

Limited snow for in the next while

The snow that I mentioned in my last post for Sunday night got pushed south by a stronger Arctic high (see below) though a couple models are still saying that we'll get a dusting from it on Monday.   Looking ahead, the next opportunity will be the clipper on Wednesday.  Otherwise, cold reigns.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Quick look ahead

While people in the maritimes get buried now in feet of snow, we'll get our few inches Thursday and next Sunday night.  In between the snows will be cold. There is potential that if Sundays storm tracks a little farther north than its current track, then we will get more than a few inches.

Friday, January 23, 2015

A lunch look..

The snow hole that is southern and eastern Ontario may get filled in somewhat late next week as a clipper comes with what is currently predicted to be a few inches.  But the main news remains the cold that is coming in two shots next week.   Sunday to Wednesday we will see overnight lows well into the -20s C.  Following the clipper is another more intense Arctic high that is currently predicted on some models to give us overnight lows well into the -30s C next weekend and into February.

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Cold, cold, cold....

Remember the maps below show anomaly, ie difference from normal temperatures.

And no snow of significance in any outlook...dang it.


Last five days of January


First five days of February

Thursday, January 15, 2015

And...it's gone.

As expected, the major storm is gone from the forecast.  Sigh.  However there are plenty of opportunities for light to moderate snows for the next while.

Oh please, oh please, oh please...

Riding the bus, reading my various weather apps, I nearly fell off my seat when viewing the TWN forecast for Monday: a major storm.   I wish I could show the mafps. TWN, taking its cue from the Euro model is giving us a foot of snow over a couple days. The Euro is phasing a northern and southern branch system into one big one.
No other model is showing this so I am pessimist...But I am hoping.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Picture of coming cold...


While the mild temperatures aren't going to stick and hold in our area at all, maybe for a day or two.
 
 
the coming cold probably will...
 

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Parade of Clippers

The cold should start to let up tomorrow after which we will see a period of more reasonable temperatures. However, as posted previously, I don't think we are going to have a January thaw.  As well, the last week of the month is still looking cold.

During the seven days we should see a few clippers with timing of approximately Thursday evening, Saturday afternoon and Tuesday evening.  Beyond that,  there is again potential for a larger storm.  

As an aside, daytime posts are coming via my phone as work IT has blocked all google except for the search engine.  Therefore there are no pics with the daytime posts.   Evening and weekend posts may have pics if applicable.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Well, that's a fun little snow squall

Quick Friday post

Last night's snow accumulated about 2-3 inches as a rough estimate.  My snow clearing readers will be able to give a better one.
Looking ahead, late Sunday into Monday will likely have some accumulating snow followed by a couple cold days.  The models are still all over the place with the system later next week.  So I will hold judgment on that one for now.  However it looks like we will experience a few days of milder days around the third week of January.  At this point I don't think it is in "thaw" territory. That being said, I think January will close out colder than normal.
Stay tuned.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Env. Can. trash

People have noticed that I pretty consistently hammer the Env. Can. forecasts.  Yet again, there is good reason.
Their current published forecast for Thursday and Friday has little to no snow on it, just a 40% chance on Thursday.  Yet every model, including their own, has enough precipitation falling Thursday night into Friday morning to give us several inches of light fluffy snow Friday morning.

The main problem in this lies with the fact most broadcasters parrot the Env. Can. forecast and people make plans accordingly.  In this case, the roads will be quite snotty Friday morning.

Monday, January 5, 2015

Quick on the bus post

Cold and clippers are the story for the next 10 days.  While liquid equivalent amounts will be low (a few millimeters or less), the cold will cause ratios to be high, like 20 or 30 to one.  That means 1 mm of liquid will give 2 or 3 cms of snow.  Friday's clipper appears to be more enthusiastic than Tuesday's, giving more than 5cms of snow.

The next potential major storm looks to be around the 15th.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Rapid Great Lake freeze...

With the much below normal temperatures coming the next two weeks, we will see a rapid expansion of the ice cover, currently at 8.8%, especially over Lake Superior, Georgian Bay and Lake Erie.
Current Great Lake Ice cover
Mean Temperature Anomoly Day 1 thru 16

Temperature bust...

The low level cold air was lot more stubborn than the models, any model, predicted.  It's still -2C in Ottawa as of 11:30 AM.  Forecasts are now saying it will only get up to 0 or +1 C.   That remains to be seen.  There is a tight temperature gradient.  Bancroft, approx. 120 km to our west is -7C.   Algonquin Part is -9.  The cold is coming...

Freezing rain is still falling and will continue to do so intermittently for the next few hours...

Saturday, January 3, 2015

About 5 cms so far

Just did the first shovel of the driveway and at least 5 cms has fallen already.  Looking like another 5 to 10 before the freezing rain starts.

Sunday temperature forecast update

As indicated in yesterday's post, I thought Env. Can. forecast high temperature for tomorrow was too high (12C).  Their current forecast high temperature forecast is now 2C, a whole 10C lower. Wow. 

As an aside, TWN and Accuweather have a forecast of 6C as the high tomorrow

Friday, January 2, 2015

Messy storm coming up...

Not much change from yesterday's post.

A messy mix of snow/freezing rain coming up starting Saturday afternoon as snow, changing over to freezing rain Sunday morning.  Currently, Env. Can. has the temperature popping to 12C.   I have a hard time believing that.  The NAM and WRF models have it going up to 3 or 4C.  The Euro has the temperature going to 7 or 8 C.  We shall see what the models say tomorrow.

All models have the dramatic drop in temperatures starting Sunday night with the coldest temps of the season coming this week.

A couple clippers will come through Wednesday and Friday (ish) bringing light snow...

Stay tuned...

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Happy New Year!

Wishing my readers the best for 2015.

This weekend's storm is looking like a ice over snow.   The snow will start Saturday evening, accumulating a few inches.  Temperatures will pop Sunday bringing a changeover to freezing rain and/or rain.   Then there will be a rapid freeze up on Monday.   So make sure you clear your snow quickly or it will be there a long time...