A quick look at the weather this week.

A sneaky low pressure will drop a couple tenths of an inch of precipitation this evening.  However, due to low temperatures, the snow will likely be in the 15:1 or above ratio.  So we could get 5+cms from this system.

The week ahead looks relatively benign but cold.

Not so in the eastern US.   Major snowstorm shaping up late week (map courtesy of Weatherbell).

Happy New Year...a look forward

Happy New Year all!  I hope 2016 is fantastic for you all.

Short term look:
- Milder than normal temps until Sunday
- a few cms of snow Saturday night

Mid term look:
- Much colder Monday thru Wednesday, getting into the -20s C overnight.
- Rumours of another storm next weekend.

Longer term look
- General agreement in models that mid January will turn to cold, with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures (see maps below courtesy of Weatherbell).

Looking forward...

The next couple days will see us get the coldest air on the planet, relative to normals. It will be about 11 degrees C below normal but will moderate as the week progresses.
Thursday will see a small system coming that will be milder than today, giving more precip of the liquid kind than frozen.   Likely another cold shot next weekend.
Longer term, unfortunately the mean temperatures will continue to be colder than normal, likely until at least mid April, interspersed by warm day teases.
The next two weeks according to GFS Ensembles, maps courtesy of WeatherBell.

Week 1

Week 2

Longer term

Initial indications are that a mid-March period starting about the 13th will be milder than normal, a thaw so to speak.

However, indications are also that this will not last indefinitely.  Late March into early April is looking cooler than normal.

Indication of how cold it's been

Great lake ice is highest on record, going back 35 years anyway.

Coldest part of the planet..

Is us...relative to average that is.

Quick post from the bus..

Cold coming gangbusters.
A clipper originally predicted to go south of us will give us a glancing blow on Saturday.  The US models are more north on the track than the Euro and as such, giving us more snow.   So as of now, we could get anywhere between 2 and 10 cms.   This clipper will intensify of the coast and bomb the maritimes.
Chance of even colder air in the 7-10 day period.
A system coming from the south may make things interesting late next week too.

Next clipper

The next clipper will bring us 5-10 cms of snow (with potential for more) Wednesday night into Thursday, giving a potential snow day Thursday.

Afterwards, some of the coldest air of the season is coming in for the weekend.

No sign of cold letting up...

Today's fluff was a high ratio snow.  There wasn't a lot of moisture falling but it's looking about 10 cms worth so far.  Looking ahead, no major snows for us currently in the models.   Cold still reigns.  Good for Winterlude.

Week 1

Week 2






Great Lake ice cover is at 50%, higher than normal (~30%). Lake Erie is completely covered.

Sigh...again

We got some snow from this one but southern Ontario to the east coast and maritimes have/will get hammered from this one.

Looking ahead, it's still looking like we will get a coating to a few cms on Wednesday and possibly more than a few cms on the weekend.  Cold still reigns.

Limited snow for in the next while

The snow that I mentioned in my last post for Sunday night got pushed south by a stronger Arctic high (see below) though a couple models are still saying that we'll get a dusting from it on Monday.   Looking ahead, the next opportunity will be the clipper on Wednesday.  Otherwise, cold reigns.

Quick look ahead

While people in the maritimes get buried now in feet of snow, we'll get our few inches Thursday and next Sunday night.  In between the snows will be cold. There is potential that if Sundays storm tracks a little farther north than its current track, then we will get more than a few inches.

A lunch look..

The snow hole that is southern and eastern Ontario may get filled in somewhat late next week as a clipper comes with what is currently predicted to be a few inches.  But the main news remains the cold that is coming in two shots next week.   Sunday to Wednesday we will see overnight lows well into the -20s C.  Following the clipper is another more intense Arctic high that is currently predicted on some models to give us overnight lows well into the -30s C next weekend and into February.

Cold, cold, cold....

Remember the maps below show anomaly, ie difference from normal temperatures.

And no snow of significance in any outlook...dang it.



Last five days of January



First five days of February

Quick on the bus post

Cold and clippers are the story for the next 10 days.  While liquid equivalent amounts will be low (a few millimeters or less), the cold will cause ratios to be high, like 20 or 30 to one.  That means 1 mm of liquid will give 2 or 3 cms of snow.  Friday's clipper appears to be more enthusiastic than Tuesday's, giving more than 5cms of snow.

The next potential major storm looks to be around the 15th.

Late Monday post: Winter is coming...again

Don't be fooled by the innocuous forecasts from Env. Can. and TWN.  Sunday may have quite a snow event.   The models have aligned in an unusual manner.   The GFS and Canadian have a system passing over the lower Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday, giving the estimated snow amounts in the maps below.  The Euro and Japanese models however have the system shunted well to the south, not affecting Ontario with any significant snow amounts.  Stayed tuned for further updates.

Colder than normal temperatures will last at least two weeks:
Week 1:

Week 2:

Quick post before supper...

Warming up tomorrow(Sunday) with some showers.
Cooling off Monday
Very cold Tuesday morning, possibly < -15C
Likely more snow than rain on Wednesday.
Cold again Friday morning
Beyond that the models diverge significantly...

The cold is coming and some snow...

Our bit of rain this morning was the cold front passing through.  Temperatures are going to drop through the day today, reaching negative values by this evening.   West of us, Peterborough has dropped 10 degrees over the last nine hours to current temp of +3C.  Bancroft has dropped 6 degrees over the last six hours to current temp of +2C. Petawawa has dropped 5 degrees in the last 4 hours to current +4C.

Looking forward, this cold will last at least two weeks, relative to normals.   Wrt to snow, there is some consensus that Sunday will bring flurries with some light accumulation.   The Euro is currently the most enthusiastic with giving us additional cms of snow on Monday. 

With this strong Northwesterly flow, the typical areas for Lake Effect Snow are going to get hammered.  Snow will be measured in feet in these areas over the next few days.

Colder and colder...snowier and snowier..

The temperature anomalies of the next two weeks.

And Remembrance Day may be memorable for the wrong reason...

This week and this month...

Another chance for snow this Friday/Friday night after a milder than normal week..

However, the middle third of the month looks to be colder than normal with the associated chances for snow. 

The last third of the month isn't looking so hot (ha!) either...

You've been warned..winter is coming.