Happy New Year...a look forward

Happy New Year all!  I hope 2016 is fantastic for you all.

Short term look:
- Milder than normal temps until Sunday
- a few cms of snow Saturday night

Mid term look:
- Much colder Monday thru Wednesday, getting into the -20s C overnight.
- Rumours of another storm next weekend.

Longer term look
- General agreement in models that mid January will turn to cold, with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures (see maps below courtesy of Weatherbell).

Missing us by thaaaaaaaaaaaaat much...again.

Hope this isn't the trend for storms this winter...

Winter is coming...

Okay, so maybe I'm poking the bear a bit, but...

Accumulated snowfall over the next week in Canada (according to the Euro):

Alright, stick a fork in it..

This winter's done.   I think I can say that with a high degree of confidence.  While temps may be below normal more often than not, I'm not seeing any more snow events on the horizon.

Yesterday did not break any records, temperature or snowfall.  At least according to Env. Can NAV CAN sensors at the Ottawa A/P.   I am reasonably comfortable with their temperature measurement  but their snowfall measurement falls short, I believe.  The official snowfall amount was 0.6cms yesterday.  From personal observation, that is a little light.  My estimate was that something between 1 and 1.5 cms accumulated.

Today will have a record cold measurement.

Winter's on the ropes...

But not down.   While we will get closer to "normal" and we will see a lot of the white stuff melt away, I think there will still be a jab or two that will straighten us up for a bit, perhaps even a body blow.   In the mean time, enjoy the milder temps this weekend.

Do not go gentle into that good night...

This winter will resist yielding to spring, kicking and screaming as the saying goes.   I think we have one or two dumps of snow before we are done done.   The intense sun wants to warm things up but the source region of air over the last week of March will be the Arctic, giving us a below average temperature anomaly over the last week (map below).  Note that the current "normal" temps are a high of +3C and low of -6C (for a mean of -1.5C).

If I had the time..

I would write a nice long post talking about the past 3 months (Dec-Feb is meteorological winter) including a mention of the post where I first speculated what this winter be like, that I speculated that it would be colder and snowier than normal, and how it turned out pretty much that way with the core of the cold being centered on the center of the continent (Dec-Feb anomaly map):

I would also mention the post where I speculated about the Great Lake ice situation where we could get on par with the 70's in terms of coverage.  Then I would show this chart where it shows the Great Lake being the highest amount in the last 35 years.

If only I had the time....



Very messy situation on Saturday night/Sunday

Starting Saturday afternoon/evening in a line of precipitation start from southern to eastern Ontario coinciding with a frontal boundary.  Overnight Saturday, the storm will ride up this boundary with the heaviest precip in the Ottawa area will be predawn Sunday but will continue throughout the day.   The biggest question will be the type of precipitation.   It will start out as snow but as the temperature boundaries move around, it may become ice pellets and/or freezing rain.  I don't think we will get to straight rain as no model is putting surface temps above 0C.  The warm air coming from the south is pushing up against a dome of cold air to our NW.  So lower level temps will be colder than upper levels until after the storm passes.   If the upper levels can get cold enough, then the precip will be snow and not ice.

Here is A/W's snow map.  I have no major issues with it.  However, it favours the GFS/NAM solution.  Snowfall amounts will significantly depend on the mix of precip..  The Euro is further south with the amounts.  Yes, I am still rooting for the Euro.

Winter storm watch from Env Can

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
3:41 PM EST Monday 25 November 2013
Winter storm watch for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans issued

First winter storm of the season Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico will bring the first significant snowfall of the season to much of Eastern Ontario Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Snow is expected to rapidly overspread the regions Tuesday evening, and then taper off from west to east on Wednesday.

Total snowfall amounts of 15 cm or more are expected in most places with up to 25 cm possible in the Ottawa area. An exception is in the St Lawrence Valley where warmer air could cause the snow to change to rain for a period, reducing amounts. There will also be the risk of freezing rain in easternmost sections.

Furthermore, some areas will see blowing snow on Wednesday.

Poor travel conditions are expected to develop Tuesday evening and continue into Wednesday.

Please refer to your local public forecast for further details.

This post will make me no friends

Looking towards winter.  Whilst I have not prognosticated about the coming winter on this blog, I have speculated with a couple of my friends what I'm looking at namely....

A snowier and colder winter than we have had of late, especially in the front end.   Naturally, things are more hazy farther out.  But I've been reading a lot of discussions and looking at the tendency in forecasts.   The trend for December has been toward a colder than normal December.  That usually means a snowier December as well as Ottawa will the in the battle ground between cold and warm.

The latest CFS:

A discussion of the Euro weekly forecast is here (Brett of Accuweather).  Both it and the GFS ensembles show that winter will start virtually now for the western provinces and cold air will become emplaced there.  How much of that cold air will make its way east to our area is the uncertain part.   With the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also trending negative, that indicates more eastern troughs which will bring the cold east.

And then there's Weatherbell with my man Joe Bastardi whose forecast for December is to make everything cold.  FUN!  :)

Confirmation of what I've been saying.

Here is confirmation of what I've been posting and telling people.   From an actual meteorologist who also happens to believe in AGW.  Here is a excerpt of his blog post:

Why did this happen?
It may be easy for someone to go and say that it was just global warming or La Nina, but it is not that easy. We are looking at several factors that just happen to come together for an extended period to produce this pattern. Some of those factors are.......
1. Unusually sustained, record positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation produced stronger west to east jet stream into southern Canada and the northern U.S. which spread Pacific air across the continent and trapped the Arctic air far to the north.
2. North Atlantic Oscillation mostly in a positive phase. (lack of blocking)
3. Stronger western Atlantic high pressure ridge.
4. Sea ice?
5. Lack of snow cover from the Prairies to the eastern U.S. allowed cold air masses to modify as they tracked south and east. The darker, bare ground also absorbs more heat than snow/ice cover.
6. La Nina played some role, but not sure it was as much as we thought.
7. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the Great Lakes and off the East Coast.
In terms of global warming, we have to remember that this is just one season over a relatively small part of the Earth (North America). Yes, the planet is warming, but we just do not have enough data to link this past winter to global warming. Now, if we see a steady increase in winters like this from North America to Asia over the next few decades then we may be able to establish a more concrete link.

This winter...from NASA

Funnily enough, nary a word about AGW or Climate change, just two naturally occurring phenomenon, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-snow.html