tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-11444277247756071972024-03-14T02:29:08.184-04:00Your Friendly Neighbourhood Weather GuyOttawa Weather and Other StuffYFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.comBlogger837125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-81280946150469806822016-04-10T21:32:00.000-04:002016-04-10T21:32:52.178-04:00Spring will come...By the time next weekend comes around, winter with all its lingering shtuff will be long forgotten and Spring will take hold. That's my hope. I am ready for snow to be done. And the models are going towards that.<br />
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For example, the GFS has this nice burnt umber colour positive temperature anomaly for our area next Sunday (map courtesy of Weatherbell). In fact, the GFS has no below 0 C temperatures day 6 thru 10 in Ottawa. Safe for the flowers to come now. Perhaps.<br />
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<br />YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-20662755146895624492016-03-21T21:39:00.001-04:002016-03-21T21:39:54.928-04:00Thursday's stormThere is still a lot of model uncertainty with respect to the track and timing of the storm on Thurs. Pick any solution between the CGEM, GFS or ECMWF, it will still be messy. <br />
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The GFS solution is the fastest and most northern of the three. The storm track in its solution has the storm center going over Lake Huron to just west of the Ottawa area by Thursday evening (map below). This track and timing allows the storm to get ahead of the coldest air aloft, causing little snow for the Ottawa area, but more of a ice mix to rain.<br />
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The CGEM solution has the storm center sliding over Lake Erie to just south of Lake Ontario with a slower track. Thursday evening it has the storm over Lake Erie (map below). This will give more snow and a brief mix of ice.<br />
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The ECMWF solution has the storm center going just south of the great lakes at a slower pace. It has the storm over Ohio Thursday evening. This give the Ottawa region mainly snow. Sorry, can't show any Euro maps.<br />
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So is the GFS jumping the gun or is the ECMWF dragging it feet? Will the CGEM come up the middle and be right for once? Stay tuned to find out.<br />
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Maps courtesy of Weatherbell.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-31737960431898196862016-03-21T08:49:00.001-04:002016-03-21T08:49:35.904-04:00Sooo winter's not done<p dir="ltr">Potential of ugly storm Thurs this week, if Canadian and Euro models are correct. The GFS is only slightly less ugly.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Hope to put a detailed post out this evening.</p>
YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-16061128138129420942016-02-28T12:16:00.002-05:002016-02-28T12:19:10.567-05:00Mixed bag of weather this weekThe first half of this week will be stormy and the last half clear and cool. All maps courtesy of Weatherbell using the GFS model (most models are in fairly close agreement).<br />
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Storm # 1 tonight will bring a messy mix tonight of snow to ice pellets to freezing rain to rain back to snow tomorrow. That sounds very familiar, doesn't it.<br />
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Storm # 2 is a weak clipper that will give us just a couple cms or so of snow Monday evening.<br />
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Storm # 3 is looking to be a bigger deal Tuesday night into Wednesday as system passes just south of the Great Lakes, giving us mostly frozen precipitation. Preliminary snowday call for Wednesday.<br />
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After Wednesday's system an Arctic high settles in giving clear and cold conditions with overnight lows potentially getting into the -20s C (overnight low Friday morning shown).<br />
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<br />YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-48955380790789022102016-02-22T15:56:00.001-05:002016-02-22T15:56:30.258-05:00Timing of this week's storm<p dir="ltr">The forecast track is slowly narrowing down to one that has the storm center pass over the lower Great Lakes on a NE course, passing just south of Ottawa. If this holds, snow will begin late afternoon Wednesday. By early morning Thursday, there will likely be a change to freezing rain to rain. Up to 15-20 cms could accumulate before the change to rain. By late Thursday, there will be a change back to snow.</p>
YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-21598425260756554812016-02-19T15:03:00.001-05:002016-02-19T15:03:29.598-05:00Next week!<p dir="ltr">Mentioned a couple days ago on my Twitter feed that model output for next week Tuesday/Wednesday had a similar setup and storm as this week. The storm is still there on the models in one form or another. Look for firming of track and precip in the next couple days.</p>
YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-82753605301704539922016-02-16T18:58:00.003-05:002016-02-16T18:58:54.361-05:00Snow amounts as of 6 PM<a href="http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html#ON">From Env. Can.</a><br />
Below is a summary of snowfall amounts received as of 6 pm Tuesday: <br /><br />Ottawa Airport 49 cm <br />Gatineau Airport 28 cm <br />Casselman 35 cm <br />Moose Creek 21 cm <br />Cornwall 20 cm <br />Brockville 25 cm <br />Kemptville 34 cm <br />Kingston Airport 30 cm <br />Trenton Airport 22 cm <br />Cobourg 13 cm <br />Welland 11 cm <br />St Catharines (on escarpment) 22 cm <br />Fort Erie 25 cm<br /><br />YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-49629056532076023292016-02-15T14:27:00.000-05:002016-02-15T14:27:46.205-05:00Tomorrow's stormStill on track for a big one. (maps courtesy of Weatherbell)<br />
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NAM:<br />
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RGEM<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-10959941187201977282016-02-14T13:23:00.002-05:002016-02-14T13:23:50.772-05:00Models are lining up for Tuesday's snow...The ECMWF is still on board with Tuesday snow (not allowed to show its map). The maps shown are courtesy of Weatherbell.<br />
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The GFS:<br />
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The NAM:<br />
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The CGEM<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-73653597688137916332016-02-11T19:46:00.000-05:002016-02-11T19:46:24.895-05:00Next Tuesday night...As noted on my twitter feed, all the medium range models are now on board with the storm currently time late next Tuesday. When the ECMWF backed away the storm to the east, CGEM and GFS jumped on board with the current track. Then the next run of the Euro moved the storm back to even a further west track which I think will correct back again. Even so here is the latest GFS. Fun. <br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-35691088391516901962016-02-10T16:45:00.001-05:002016-02-10T16:45:27.930-05:00Next Wednesday..For the last three days, the Euro model has consistently shown a snow storm for us next Wednesday (below, map courtesy of Penn State eWall). GFS and CGEM do not show it. We shall see.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-92006906890651721332016-01-19T00:16:00.003-05:002016-01-19T00:16:35.808-05:00US mid-Atlantic snow storm updateBatten down the hatches, this is going to be a doozy(maps courtesy of Weatherbell) for the mid-Atlantic US and Nova Scotia. It'll miss us entirely, dangit. Most of the snow will fall Friday into Saturday.<br />
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GFS<br />
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CGEM<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-18489736524244910592016-01-17T11:48:00.000-05:002016-01-17T11:48:30.633-05:00A quick look at the weather this week.A sneaky low pressure will drop a couple tenths of an inch of precipitation this evening. However, due to low temperatures, the snow will likely be in the 15:1 or above ratio. So we could get 5+cms from this system.<br />
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The week ahead looks relatively benign but cold.<br />
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Not so in the eastern US. Major snowstorm shaping up late week (map courtesy of Weatherbell).<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-48412510401767324612016-01-12T19:38:00.000-05:002016-01-12T19:38:37.907-05:00Hope springs eternal..While the clipper has given pretty what was expected in terms of snow.<br />
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The models are now turning the Saturday system into another 5-10 cm instead of a 15-20 cm storm.<br />
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But hope springs eternal.. rumours of storms beyond.YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-89720799397226087452016-01-11T10:39:00.001-05:002016-01-11T10:39:03.593-05:00More enthusiast<p dir="ltr">Some of the models have become more enthusiast about tomorrow clipper, saying that we may get as much as 10cm. As well, a system on Saturday is looking like a 15-20 cm..</p>
YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-80096655387341643122016-01-10T11:55:00.000-05:002016-01-10T11:55:21.419-05:00Flash freeze and ClipperToday's high temperature of ~ +5C will occur early this evening, approximately 8:00 PM, . By 10 PM, the temperature is predicted to have dropped to -2C, -5 by midnight, -10 by morning. This is accompanied by high winds. Bare surfaces may dry up before the freeze but any accumulation of puddles will freeze up and snow banks will become rock solid.<br />
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Tuesday will see an Alberta clipper coming through, dropping approximately 5cm of snow (map courtesy of Weatherbell)<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-46427161126242585172015-12-31T16:16:00.000-05:002015-12-31T16:16:11.611-05:00Happy New Year...a look forwardHappy New Year all! I hope 2016 is fantastic for you all.<br />
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Short term look:<br />
- Milder than normal temps until Sunday<br />
- a few cms of snow Saturday night<br />
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Mid term look:<br />
- Much colder Monday thru Wednesday, getting into the -20s C overnight.<br />
- Rumours of another storm next weekend.<br />
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Longer term look<br />
- General agreement in models that mid January will turn to cold, with seasonal to below seasonal temperatures (see maps below courtesy of Weatherbell).<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-63913663686300747682015-12-29T12:15:00.000-05:002015-12-29T12:15:42.028-05:00Latest radar loop...Looks like one major band is starting to cross the Eastern Ontario region.<br />
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Enjoy this snow... it'll be the last one of significance for at least a week. <br />
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Longer term, look for mid January for true winter to start for the areas that were warm in December.<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vDQEa1otwNg/VoK-tXrZUDI/AAAAAAAAEXg/H4P8o4_xxko/s1600/bgm_None_anim.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"></a>YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-3788625248308694122015-12-28T10:49:00.001-05:002015-12-28T10:49:04.247-05:00Lastest snow mapFrom the NAW/WRF model (map courtesy of Weatherbell), no change in timing: late tonight to late tomorrow.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-78597549808826101992015-12-27T11:58:00.001-05:002015-12-27T11:58:41.386-05:00Tuesday's snowSnow will start late evening Monday or early morning of Tuesday, ending in the evening. Most modeling is showing 6-10" of accumulations.<br />
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Here is the 60 hr snow totals from the NAM, map courtesy of Weatherbell.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-40214376152627220692015-12-26T10:59:00.000-05:002015-12-26T10:59:48.688-05:00Wouldn't that be fun...Five day snow total from the CGEM (map below courtesy of Weatherbell). <br />
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Tonight precip starts late this evening as snow, changes over to ice pellets/freezing rain until mid-morning-ish with a change back to snow.<br />
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The next system will start late Monday in SW Ontario, moving NE hitting the Ottawa area by Tuesday morning. More precise precip types/totals coming tomorrow as short range models start outputting for Tuesday.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-63598638353580143872015-12-25T22:50:00.002-05:002015-12-25T22:50:50.827-05:00I'm baaaacckkk...for some snowFor the holidays at least when there's snow in the forecast. My predicament: no blog access at work, no time in the evenings. The result, no posts.<br />
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Anyway, between now and Wednesday, we could get up to 30+ cms of snow, some this Sunday, most Tuesday. Confidence is pretty high of significant accumulations, from the GFS (shown below, courtesy of Weatherbell) to ECMWF (heaviest north of Ottawa area) to CGEM which thumps us.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-46335878046166100982015-07-20T20:17:00.000-04:002015-07-20T20:17:57.734-04:00What a difference a week makes...<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<br />YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-83109128793377067082015-07-12T17:31:00.000-04:002015-07-12T17:31:11.202-04:00More western rain coming...Lots of fires burning in western Canada and Alaska:<br />
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The rain over the last couple days has had some effect on the fire danger:<br />
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There is more rain over next week for the affected regions so hopefully more fire containment can occur.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1144427724775607197.post-57828385293414731452015-07-09T19:36:00.003-04:002015-07-09T19:36:47.833-04:00BC/Alberta/Praire fire reliefGFS (and Euro) calling for significant rain in the prairie provinces over the next week or so. That should help fire fighting efforts.<br />
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YFNWGhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11300086104463119000noreply@blogger.com0