Showing posts with label arctic oscillation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label arctic oscillation. Show all posts

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Confirmation of what I've been saying.

Here is confirmation of what I've been posting and telling people.   From an actual meteorologist who also happens to believe in AGW.  Here is a excerpt of his blog post:

Why did this happen?
It may be easy for someone to go and say that it was just global warming or La Nina, but it is not that easy. We are looking at several factors that just happen to come together for an extended period to produce this pattern. Some of those factors are.......
1. Unusually sustained, record positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation produced stronger west to east jet stream into southern Canada and the northern U.S. which spread Pacific air across the continent and trapped the Arctic air far to the north.
2. North Atlantic Oscillation mostly in a positive phase. (lack of blocking)
3. Stronger western Atlantic high pressure ridge.
4. Sea ice?
5. Lack of snow cover from the Prairies to the eastern U.S. allowed cold air masses to modify as they tracked south and east. The darker, bare ground also absorbs more heat than snow/ice cover.
6. La Nina played some role, but not sure it was as much as we thought.
7. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the Great Lakes and off the East Coast.
In terms of global warming, we have to remember that this is just one season over a relatively small part of the Earth (North America). Yes, the planet is warming, but we just do not have enough data to link this past winter to global warming. Now, if we see a steady increase in winters like this from North America to Asia over the next few decades then we may be able to establish a more concrete link.

Monday, March 19, 2012

Everybody on the bandwagon!

It's a good time to be a weather enthusiast because everybody is talking about the weather.   And there is plenty to talk about... Well actually, only one thing right now in our neck of the woods and that is the balmy temperatures (we won't mention the snowstorm in Arizona).  We are having May and June like temperatures.   Records are being blasted and beaten like a rented mule, left, right and center.   And these positive temp anomalies will continue for a while, albeit reduced somewhat by the end of the month in certain areas.

Naturally, the question comes:  is this Global Warming?  Some would predictably say yes...  I would say no, again predictably.   Climate/weather always changes and unique circumstances can always occur.   If you remember back in my December 22nd post, I commented how we were in a relatively unique atmospheric weather situation.   That continued throughout the winter.  Alaska had its coldest January on recordEastern Europe had record cold and snows in February as did Northern China.  But we had warm temperatures and a lack of snowstorms, especially in the eastern half of the N. American Continent.   As a result we have a lack of snowcover (4th lowest N.America winter on record) and record high Great Lake temperatures.   So any strong southerly flow of air will be un-moderated, un-cooled and ripe for breaking records.   And that is what is happening big time. 

So both the current AND preceding weather patterns are responsible for our current weather.  Enjoy it.  It may lead to a cooler than normal summer.

Update Mar.22nd:  I've added a couple links to show my points about a global view of weather.

Friday, March 16, 2012

This winter...from NASA

Funnily enough, nary a word about AGW or Climate change, just two naturally occurring phenomenon, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-snow.html