Alternative energy...

Is not the answer to the climate change "problem".

A balanced climate change article

http://business.financialpost.com/2014/09/22/judith-curry-an-unsettled-climate-for-climate-summit/

From one of my favourite climatologists who, a decade ago, was touting the hurricane/climate change link as co-author of a couple papers on the issue.  However throughout the past decade, through discussions on her blog, her position has moderated drastically, acknowledging that models are not matching real data and there is far too much uncertainty to make economic policies that would be detrimental.

Here is an article profiling JC.

And we wonder why our energy bills are so high...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/30/renewable-energy-in-perspective-solar-and-wind-power/

Unfortunately Ontario has similar issues, hence our power bill...
http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Supply.aspx

Good video blog post..

By my man Bastardi:
http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-16-2014

Texas drought update.

Previous post here.   Three maps to show today. The first two maps show the progression of drought status.  Compare these with the one in the previous post.   The third maps is the predicted rainfall over the next four days.   Most of the deep red in Texas and Kansas will be eliminated.

California is still suffering though.  That'll change when the El Nino moisture kicks up.

Another Indonesia volcano

Mt. Sangeang erupted on Friday.   While impressive, getting up to 65,000 feet, it ain't a Pinotubo type event and should have minimal climatic impact, provided it doesn't last very long.

Snicker...

MSM is johnny-come-lately to the story..my posts:
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/08/tropical-storm-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-storm-season.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/tropical-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-season-update.html

More IPCC report reactions

http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/marotzkes-broken-promise/
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/ipcc-disappears-the-discrepancy/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/28/ipcc-diagnosis-permanent-paradigm-paralysis/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/30/ipccs-pause-logic/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/negotiating-the-ipcc-spm/
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/27/kelly-mcparland-the-uns-latest-climate-change-report-could-serve-to-close-the-door-on-windbaggery/
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/30/ipcc-climate-global-warming/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/ipcc-we-dont-need-no-stinking-climate-sensitivity/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/the-global-warming-they-fear-is-not-based-upon-physical-first-principles/
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2013/09/five-points-on-ipcc-report-wonky-long.html

From the last article:
"5. There is not a strong scientific basis for claiming a discernible effect of human-caused climate change on hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought."

What's left for CAGW?  Maybe only the AGW part, in part....

New Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) from the IPCC

With the MSM falling over themselves to proclaim how certain scientists are that man is causing global warming...

Some reactions:
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/27/95/
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/27/9000-nobel-pretenders/
http://www.staatvanhetklimaat.nl/2013/09/27/ar5-gives-no-best-estimate-for-climate-sensitivity-breaks-with-a-long-tradition-good-news-is-hidden-from-policy-makers/
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/27/thoughts-on-the-spm.html
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/side-by-side-comparison-of-draft-and-final-ipcc-ar5-spm-on-warming-plateau-and-attribution/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/ipcc-fails-to-come-clean-over-global-temperature-standstill/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/new-ipcc-climate-report-already-obsolete-2/

I think it also helpful to note that there is a much less emphasis on GHG (greenhouse gases) such as CO2, but also on "other" anthroprogenic changes.  As touched on by Judy Curry post, what will the IPCC say when the current 10 year negative trend (not pause) extends out to 15 or 20 years (as I think it will)?  Will they admit that they were wrong?...not bloody likely.

As I comment in the national post article: This report is out of date already, stillborn, as recent studies that didn't make the deadline for incorporation into this report ARE cast doubt on the severity of AGW. The only way that the IPCC can raise their certainty is by being more certain about a more vague criteria...

But one of my favourite reaction is Ross McKitrick's comment here:

SPM in a nutshell: Since we started in 1990 we were right about the Arctic, wrong about the Antarctic, wrong about the tropical troposphere, wrong about the surface, wrong about hurricanes, wrong about the Himalayas, wrong about sensitivity, clueless on clouds and useless on regional trends. And on that basis we’re 95% confident we’re right.

Next IPCC report

Most of you are probably not aware of this, but the UN organization for Climate Change, the IPCC,  is shortly issuing their next report (done every four years), AR5, supposedly showing the current state of climate science.   As you might expect, there is a lot of controversy about it with various "leaks" coming out.   If you're interested, here are some articles about it:

http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/16/ipcc-models-getting-mushy/
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/16/matt-gurney-climate-scientists-it-wont-matter-if-youre-right-in-the-end-if-no-one-believes-you/
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324549004579067532485712464.html?mod=WSJEurope_hps_MIDDLE_Video_second
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/17/ridleys-riposte-to-john-abraham/
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2013/09/global-temperature-trends-and-ipcc.html
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/17/consensus-denialism/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/15/leaked-ipcc-report-discussed-in-the-msm/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/a-turning-point-for-the-ipcc-and-humanity/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/15/the-state-of-climate-science-fluxed-up/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/15/one-step-forward-two-steps-back/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/16/lomborg-climate-models-are-running-way-too-hot/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/16/what-people-will-read-and-see-with-the-ipccs-lead-off-illustration-from-the-ar5-spm/

That's for starters...

Colorado flooding

Predictably, there are those who are pointing to the Colorado flooding as a sign of climate change...sigh.
http://www.dnr.state.ne.us/floodplain/mitigation/1935flood.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Floods_in_the_United_States:_1901%E2%80%932000#Big_Thompson_Canyon_Flood_in_Colorado_.28July_1976.29

http://www.news.colostate.edu/Release/6991

Everybody on the bandwagon!

It's a good time to be a weather enthusiast because everybody is talking about the weather.   And there is plenty to talk about... Well actually, only one thing right now in our neck of the woods and that is the balmy temperatures (we won't mention the snowstorm in Arizona).  We are having May and June like temperatures.   Records are being blasted and beaten like a rented mule, left, right and center.   And these positive temp anomalies will continue for a while, albeit reduced somewhat by the end of the month in certain areas.

Naturally, the question comes:  is this Global Warming?  Some would predictably say yes...  I would say no, again predictably.   Climate/weather always changes and unique circumstances can always occur.   If you remember back in my December 22nd post, I commented how we were in a relatively unique atmospheric weather situation.   That continued throughout the winter.  Alaska had its coldest January on record.  Eastern Europe had record cold and snows in February as did Northern China.  But we had warm temperatures and a lack of snowstorms, especially in the eastern half of the N. American Continent.   As a result we have a lack of snowcover (4th lowest N.America winter on record) and record high Great Lake temperatures.   So any strong southerly flow of air will be un-moderated, un-cooled and ripe for breaking records.   And that is what is happening big time. 

So both the current AND preceding weather patterns are responsible for our current weather.  Enjoy it.  It may lead to a cooler than normal summer.

Update Mar.22nd:  I've added a couple links to show my points about a global view of weather.

For those with a bend for science

I agree with AW, a must read for its perspective on the certainty of climate science.

Thought experiment

Now that it is finally snowing in Ottawa again.   I had some thoughts as to why the models got the track wrong for this storm (it's farther north than predicted yesterday).

This time of year as the sun is getting higher in the sky and the nights are shorter, it is a lot tougher to maintain cold enough temperatures for snow, especially without much snowcover.   A brief physics lesson for you.

There is a common misperception that convection (ie hot air rising) is the primary method for the cooling that happens at night.  However that isn't the case though convection does play a part.  Radiative cooling provides the majority mechanism for cooling.  This is essentially infrared radiation (aka IR, long wave radiation, LWR) going out into space.   You can tell this is the case where one can see that cloudy nights do not cool off as much as clear nights.   The clouds provide an isolative barrier for IR.   Now much of the IR comes from the ground.   When there is snowcover, there is two reasons that it helps keep things cool, one in daytime and one at night.  First snow has one of the highest albedo properties, the ability to reflect rather than absorb incoming sunlight (Shortwave radiation, SWR).   Secondly, snow, especially deep snow, provides an insolative barrier from the thermal energy in the ground.   The atmosphere cools  a lot quicker than the ground does.

So this time of year, the nights are shorter so there is less time for radiative cooling.  The sun is higher in the sky and days are longer, so there is more energy being added to the environment.   Now combine this with a lack of snowcover that we have, especially to our south from whence storm systems come, it is tough to keep it cool enough to snow.

Now as a result of the winter we have had, the water temperatures of the Great Lakes are near or at record highs.   Most computer models don't have the resolution to use the surface temperature data of the lakes as an input.  However, I think that with these relatively high temperatures are adding thermal energy as well as moisture to the systems, deviating them from the expected track.

Might be an interesting case study for some climate guy.