Monday, April 28, 2014

limited posting

Home PC bit the biscuit so I am working on getting a new one and recovering stuff.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

They can't win for losing...

They being those who try to connect extreme weather, and in this particular case, tornadoes to Climate Change, Global Warming, Climate Disruption....

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Snow and Ice cover

Satellite shot from yesterday, a mostly clear day, shows the state of the snow and ice cover of southern Ontario.

Great Lake ice

Above 1000(yes, one thousand)% above normal.

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Alright, stick a fork in it..

This winter's done.   I think I can say that with a high degree of confidence.  While temps may be below normal more often than not, I'm not seeing any more snow events on the horizon.

Yesterday did not break any records, temperature or snowfall.  At least according to Env. Can NAV CAN sensors at the Ottawa A/P.   I am reasonably comfortable with their temperature measurement  but their snowfall measurement falls short, I believe.  The official snowfall amount was 0.6cms yesterday.  From personal observation, that is a little light.  My estimate was that something between 1 and 1.5 cms accumulated.

Today will have a record cold measurement.

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Fun data tidbits

A couple daily records might fall today, low temp and snowfall.  Those current records are:

-8.9C set in 1943
2.4 cm of snow set in 2007

Now I don't think today's temperature record will fall but it's already -2C so who knows.  More likely is that tomorrow's record of -8.3C (set in 1939 and 1943) will be broken in the early morning tomorrow.

If you think you have it bad now, just think in 1971 there was still 15 cms of snow on the ground.

Snow map

Latest Env. Can. statement

6:22 AM EDT Tuesday 15 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
After a long awaited taste of summer, winter returns with a snowy vengeance.
A sharp Arctic cold front has passed through Southern Ontario ushering out the mild air of the past few days. In the wake of the front, northwesterly winds are returning much colder Arctic air to the regions, with temperatures plunging to below freezing early this morning from the Dunnville through the Greater Toronto area to Renfrew areas and northwestward. The colder air and northwesterly winds will make temperatures fall to below freezing across Niagara and the rest of Eastern Ontario during the day today.

Meanwhile, a disturbance tracking up along the line of this cold front is bringing another area of precipitation with it. As temperatures drop to below freezing, rain showers are transitioning through a brief period of freezing rain and ice pellets to snow over Southern Ontario early this morning, and over Eastern Ontario later this morning or early afternoon.

Indications show that a snowfall of 5 to 10 cm for much of Southern Ontario will occur today. A total of 10 to 15 cm of snow are possible for some areas east of Georgian Bay.
Driving conditions will deteriorate quickly as the freezing precipitation and snow move in. Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions due to low visibility in areas of heavier snow, and accumulating snow on untreated roads.

The snow will end over all regions late in the day. Winter's Victory will be only temporary, as temperatures will moderate back up closer to normal by the end of the week.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Env. Can. weather statement...

11:47 AM EDT Monday 14 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
Winter battles again with spring, as temperatures go up and down like a roller coaster and strong winds blast across the regions today.
The low pressure system that has brought heavy rain to some and twenty degree temperatures to others will bring winter-like weather to most before it exits the province Tuesday afternoon.

It will be a very warm day for some regions today, particularly over Eastern Ontario where temperatures may soar into the mid twenties, with readings in the low 20S in the Greater Toronto to Peterborough and the Trenton areas.

However, a big change is coming as winter clashes again with spring. Showers, accompanied by a few wind gusts to 85 km/h and an isolated brief 90 km/h gust, are moving across the regions. This will herald an end to the first taste of almost summerlike weather across the regions. The showers will move into Eastern Ontario later this afternoon.

A very sharp Arctic cold front will sweep across Southern Ontario this afternoon then move into Eastern Ontario this evening. Temperatures will plunge quite dramatically as a result, with values dropping to near freezing or a bit below from roughly the Toronto area and west by Tuesday morning.

As a result, showers will begin to change over to a few centimetres of snow from near Georgian Bay to Lake St Clair tonight with the transition zone reaching Eastern Ontario later Tuesday morning. During this transition, there is a risk of a few hours of ice pellets or freezing rain.
In addition, after the changeover to snow, a few centimetres are likely by the time the snow tapers off later on Tuesday. There will be enough snow to whiten the ground in many areas. There is some potential, based on latest indications, of total snowfall amounts reaching 10 cm especially over higher ground to the southeast of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay. Temperatures will be sharply colder on Tuesday with afternoon values expected to be near or below freezing as winter pushes spring well to the southeast of the regions.

Motorists should be prepared for a quick return to winter driving conditions, especially in areas that receive a period of heavier snow. Untreated roads and surfaces may quickly become partially to mostly snow covered and slippery.

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Tuesday: Rain ending with snow...likely

On Tuesday.  Tuesday's high temperature will be early in the morning and fall during the day.  Precipitation will likely change to snow over the course of the day.  While all or most of it will melt on contact with the ground given how warm it be on Monday, there may be some accumulation.

It will be cool Wednesday and likely Thursday and then warming up for the weekend.

Friday, April 11, 2014

Still no agreement...

Among the models on whether we will get snow in the first half of next week.    The Euro is now the most gung-ho, the GFS second and now the Canadian is mostly missing us...  We are in for some rain on Sunday   Whether we get snow is dependent on whether the third disturbance that's riding the front will be timed with the arrival of cold air.

I don't agree with it entirely but for what it's worth, here is the Env. Can statement (see highlight):

3:21 PM EDT Friday 11 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
Significant rainfall from late Saturday night to early Tuesday morning.
Several disturbances with associated significant rainfall are expected to move across Southern Ontario in the next 3 days. There is still considerable uncertainty to determine exactly how much rain each disturbance will bring. However, indications at this time suggest the total rainfall amounts from late Saturday night to early Tuesday morning could be very high. Regions north of a line from Southern Lake Huron to the Ottawa and Prescott regions could end up with 50 mm to 75 mm. Rainfall amounts are expected to drop off sharply south of this line.

Please consult your local conservation authority or Ontario ministry of natural resources district office for more information on spring flood conditions.

In addition, rain is expected to switch to snow Monday night over regions east of Georgian Bay. Algonquin and Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet regions could end up with 5 to 10 cm of snow by Tuesday morning.

Environment Canada meteorologists will continue to monitor the developing systems closely and update this statement when necessary.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at

Wednesday, April 9, 2014

Don't shoot the messenger...

But this is what the Euro is showing for next Tuesday.  The Canadian is similar.  The GFS is missing us entirely on its current run.  Pray that the GFS is right (or wrong depending on your view).

Tuesday, April 8, 2014

Shaping up to be a messy week next week

As implied by my post yesterday, the models are trying to figure out what to do with a clash of air masses next week, one being cold and dry from the Arctic and another moist and warm from the south.   It starts in the midwest and works its way east this coming weekend so that by late Sunday a mix of precipitation may be starting.

Enjoy the warmer than normal temps the last half of this week.

Monday, April 7, 2014

Env. Can. weather statement

See highlight.
10:00 AM EDT Monday 07 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
  • Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
A moisture-laden Texas low is setting its sights on Southern Ontario.
The disturbance expected to affect Southern Ontario is currently over Western Kentucky and will intensify and track toward the Lower Great Lakes today. The most likely trajectory is across Ohio to Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. Rain is expected to develop over parts of Southern Ontario this afternoon, reaching Georgian Bay this evening.

A significant general rainfall of 15 to 25 mm is likely over much of Southern and Eastern Ontario with the higher amounts likely closer to lakes Erie and Ontario. Rainfall warnings have been issued northeast of Lake Ontario where 25 to 35 mm of rain are forecast.

The rain will likely change to a heavy wet snow this evening mainly over the higher terrain of the Dundalk and Haliburton Highlands. A significant accumulation of 5 to 10 centimetres appears likely in these areas before it tapers off early Tuesday. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially over the Bancroft through Algonquin Park area, as well as the higher ground southwest of Collingwood including flesherton, Singhampton and Shelburne. Snowfall warnings may be required.

On a more spring-like note, the warmest weather of the season is likely on Thursday to the south of Georgian Bay, quickly erasing any memory of the snow on Monday night. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper teens, but will likely be more muted east of Georgian Bay.

Did my own waffling..

When asked at a party last night whether the snow flakes we saw Saturday morning was the last snow of the season.   Very hesitantly, as it was a hostile crowd (to winter weather), I said that there was a potential for more.   Can you blame me when I am still seeing episodes like this appearing on the models (current GFS precip type map for next Monday night):

Wrt tonight's precipitation event, is looking like it's another mostly rain for us.  There is a chance we will get some wet flurries to start but the snow will primarily be hitting areas north of us more, eg Algonquin park and Petawawa.

Friday, April 4, 2014

Model waffle

Monday night/Tuesday morning:  GFS has some snow, Euro more and the Canadian has none (though it should given its storm track forecast).

It is looking like Monday overnight into Tuesday morning will be messy, a rain/wet snow system...

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

You have entered...

The waffle zone.

The models are doing the cha-cha with the storm track so now on the GFS and Euro, the snow has mostly disappeared for next Tuesday and has rain.  The Canadian still has the snow track.

As always. stayed tuned.

Great Lake Ice update

It's going to have implications for spring and early summer temperatures.  Just sayin'.

Rain then snow...

We are in for a bunch of rain Friday evening into the overnight.  It may start as snow briefly but it will be primarily a rain event.

Can't say the same for next Monday night.  If current model projections hold true, we will wake up to heavy wet snow next Tuesday morning, a sloppy mess.

As always, stay tuned.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

As a head's up...

The just-for-funsies may not be fun after all.   The Canadian, GFS and Euro models are all showing messy weather in about a week.

It's the GFS's turn

The GFS is showing a just-for-funsies, since the Euro lost the one from yesterday:

Graphic vs text Env Can forecast...

Taking a quick look at the Env. Can. graphical representation of forecast, one would think that there is no rain coming in the next couple days and it's going to be just beautiful the whole time. 

However the text portion says this:
Today, 1 April
Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Wind becoming east 20 km/h gusting to 40 late this morning. High 6. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight, 1 April
Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Wind east 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low zero.
Wednesday, 2 April
Mainly cloudy. Clearing near noon. Wind southwest 20 km/h becoming light late in the morning. High 6.

April fools?