Monday, December 31, 2012

Cold then meh

Cold start to January.
A few cms of snow Thursday from a clipper.
Meh weather next week with nothing of significance until maybe the end of the week.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

Beautiful snow...

By the looks of it, as of 8:30 AM, looks like about 15-20 cms has fallen so far (it's up to my dog's back), with it snowing to beat the band and radar showing it'll last a good part of the day.

A good day to be snowed in.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Updated map and snow storm warning

From Accuweather

Env. Can has issued Winter Storm warning for areas near the Lower Great Lakes and the St. Lawrence seaway.  For example, Brockville:
Brockville - Prescott
1:14 PM EST Wednesday 26 December 2012
Winter storm warning for
Brockville - Prescott continued

Snow and blowing snow beginning over the Niagara Peninsula this afternoon and over Eastern Ontario this evening.

An intensifying winter storm centred over Kentucky will track well south of the Lower Great Lakes today. It will be accompanied by a large area of snow.

Over the Niagara and Dunnville areas snow will begin this afternoon. Snow will fall heavy at times this evening into the overnight hours before tapering off Thursday morning. Total snowfall amounts are expected to be in the 15 to 20 cm range with local 25 possible. The falling snow combined with northeast winds gusting to 60 or 70 km/h will create considerable blowing snow with reduced visibilities frequently less than 500 metres.

Over Eastern Ontario snow will begin this evening. Snow will fall heavy at times overnight into Thursday morning before tapering off Thursday afternoon. Total snowfall amounts are expected to be 15 to locally 20 cm. The falling snow combined with northeast winds gusting to 50 km/h will create blowing snow with reduced visibilities less than 500 metres at times.

This is a significant winter storm due to the combination of heavy snow and blowing snow. Travellers should allow considerable extra time and exercise caution if required to drive later today, tonight and Thursday.

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

SWS from Env. Can.

Potential winter storm boxing day into Thursday.

A low pressure system is currently intensifying over Texas and is forecast to track northeastward to pass south of the Great Lakes region late Wednesday into Thursday. Such a storm track would place
Southern Ontario on the cold side of the storm, with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations.

Present indications suggest that the snow will start over the southwest Wednesday morning, and then spread eastward to reach Eastern Ontario late in the evening. In addition, gusty northeast winds would result in local blowing snow reducing visibilities. Conditions should improve from west to east on Thursday.

Current indications suggest that areas from Windsor to Niagara and Hamilton, as well as along the St Lawrence Valley, will see the highest total snow amounts with 10 to 15 cm likely. Snowfall Warnings may be required if the warning criteria of 15 cm in 12 Hours is exceeded.

Further north from Sarnia to Toronto to Ottawa snowfall amounts will probably be in the 5 to locally 10 cm range.   (YFNWG:  I think it will be 10-15 range)
The exact track of the low will determine the snowfall amounts in each location. If the low tracks further to the south, snowfall amounts will be less, and the if the low track further to the north,
snowfall amounts will be higher.
The track of the storm will become more certain as the event draws closer.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at


Sunday, December 23, 2012

Quick post from down south

Areas that missed snow accumulations with Friday's storm will get theirs this week.  There is a weak system passing to the south of the lakes Christmas that will bring a couple cms or so to southern Ont.  Ottawa will get nothing from this one.   The second system will follow a slightly more southerly track than last Friday's storm (official storm totals are still TBD on that one), starting Boxing day in SW Ontario and hitting the Ottawa Area on the 27th.   Therefore this will likely be an all snow storm for much of Ontario with higher amounts in southern Ontario. Ottawa will get about 5-15 cms with this one.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Latest Env. Can. warning

Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
11:07 AM EST Thursday 20 December 2012
Snowfall warning for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans continued

Heavy snow expected tonight and Friday.

A Colorado low is tracking northeast towards lower Michigan and is intensifying into a winter storm as expected. Snow ahead of this storm will arrive over areas near Georgian Bay later this afternoon then quickly spread eastward into the Ottawa and St Lawrence valleys this evening.

The snow will quickly become heavy at times this evening and continue tonight and through Friday with total snowfall amounts of 15 to 25 cm expected across the district by Friday evening. Over Eastern Ontario snowfall rates up to 5 cm per hour will be quite possible during the height of this snowstorm, which is expected to be overnight into Friday morning. Total snowfall amounts could be a bit less in the St Lawrence Valley due to the possibility of mixing with some rain on Friday.

Brisk easterly winds will also cause low visibility at times in blowing snow.

As the Colorado low tracks east across Southern Ontario into New York State, it is expected to get absorbed by an East Coast low which is forecast to intensify and track northward towards Southeastern Quebec by Friday night. If this happens, heavy snow may persist in the Renfrew through Ottawa to Cornwall areas into Friday night, with potential for higher total snowfall amounts of 30 cm.

Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions tonight and Friday and adjust travel plans accordingly.

The snow will taper off from west to east on Saturday as the storm moves away across Eastern Quebec.

Gittin' while the gittin's good

Heading out of town for the weekend today before the storm hits.  Actually we are driving into it but it won't be as bad (snowy) in southern Ontario by the time we get there.

No major changes with tomorrow's storm other than there may be a precipitation mix at times (hopefully not).  I will have limited computer access this weekend so my updates will be less often.  However after tomorrow's storm there will be limited action albeit cold.   The 28th storm has disappeared off the GFS model but still there on others (like the Euro which is giving us another 12 incher) so I will be keeping an eye on that.

Merry Christmas, happy Holidays and stay safe.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Everybody is jumping on board

From Accuweather.

YFNWG Winter Storm warning!

The models are all aligned with the track, timing and intensity of the next storm.   It's going to start in the wee hours of Friday morning for the Ottawa area and continue until Saturday.  There will be periods of intense snow fall, perhaps a few centimeters per hour.   Total accumulations could be in the order of 20-30 cms.   However the Euro model is output 18 inches for our area.  That is within the realm of possibility but unlikely as ratios won't be that high.   It will be windy with winds 40-60 km/h coming out of the ESE and shifting over the course of the day towards the North.   Just a nasty situation.  Sad I'm missing it.

It will be a day where if you don't have to go out, don't.  Schools will likely be cancelled.

Here is Env. Can. Special Weather Statement about the storm:

A messy winter storm beginning Thursday continuing into Friday.

A low pressure system from the state of Colorado will intensify as it tracks towards Southern Ontario today and Thursday.

Current indications are that precipitation will begin over most of Southern Ontario during the day Thursday. The precipitation may start briefly as wet snow flurries or some freezing rain, but will then change over to rain. The rain should change back to snow Friday or Friday night with some accumulation quite possible before ending Saturday as the cold air of winter finally arrives.

Regions near and north of a line from Wiarton to Muskoka to Brockville are expected to receive more snow than locales further south. Significant snow amounts are quite possible especially in The Bayfield Inlet east to the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region on Friday. Some freezing rain may also be an issue. Snowfall warnings may be issued for some of these regions by Thursday morning if conditions warrant.

Colder air in the wake of this winter storm centre will cause temperatures to drop below freezing in all areas by Friday night. Flurries along with possible snow squalls in the wake of this System may add a fresh white layer of snow on the ground in the Southern Ontario snow belts near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on

This weather system has the potential to impact transportation  especially in areas that receive accumulating snow and freezing rain.  Driving conditions are expected to deteriorate beginning Thursday. Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions as a result.

The exact track of the low over Southern Ontario will determine how much snow or rain a particular locale will receive. At this stage there is still uncertainty about the exact track of the low. Environment Canada is monitoring this storm closely and will issue further statements as more details become available.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.


Tuesday, December 18, 2012

12Z GFS has me drooling...

3:30 PM update:  So does the Euro!!!  Hold on to your hats people, winter is coming.   However I will wait until tomorrow morning's model runs to issue a YFNWG winter storm warning.

It has the Friday storm dropping about 2" of precipitation with the bullseye right over Ottawa, falling all as snow(assuming 10:1 ratio, 20" of snow)...  If it happens, I'll be sad to miss it.  I'll see what the Euro says this aft..


There is the 28th storm which the GFS has also predicted to be a blizzard for southern and eastern Ontario...  here's hoping.

Monday, December 17, 2012

The remainder of this week and peek into next

My thoughts that today's system would mimic the one from a week ago panned out pretty good.  The precip is pretty much done until tonight.

The precipitation from another small system scooting to the SW of us will start overnight tonight.  This time there should be a change over from rain/ice-rain to snow in the wee hours of the morning and then snow for a good chunk of the day.  It should be a shovelable 5-10, but likely on the low end of that scale.

Which is too bad since we are likely going to get rained upon again this Friday.   The timing of the system that I mentioned last week has been pushed to the Friday (Thursday night start).  As this system looks to be cutting across the lower Great Lakes, there will be an influx of milder air before the storm center passes.   So once again, this will be a start as snow, change over to rain, back to snow type off storm.  Fortunately, it is looking like this storm will have a significant amount of tail end snow.  Especially the Euro and JMA are giving us a good thump of snow Friday night.

After Friday's storm, a weak northerly flow of air will maintain seasonal temps, maintaining the existing snow cover until Christmas.  Some of you may seen the ridiculous article of how Env. Can. is predicting most people will not have a white Christmas.  First of all, that is a population centric type statement, not an area based statement as these maps show.  Second of all, it's likely wrong.  Based on the discussion above, there is a good chance for snow in the major eastern cities.  Vancouver likely won't get a white Christmas (does it ever?) but the rest of western Canada is buried.   I will keep you posted.

Next big system is around the 27th after which some major cold is predicted to come to close out the year.

Friday, December 14, 2012

Some notes before the weekend

First, it's Hobbit weekend!  Woot!

- first system comes Sunday afternoon to Monday.  How much snow we get depends how much the cold that will settle in tomorrow can resist the relatively weak inflow of warmer air from the system.  Regardless, it may be a similar messy system as last week Monday with snow, rain/ice-rain, snow type precipitation event.
- second system of the week will be the Thursday/Friday.  There is still a few hundred kilometers and hours of difference with regards to storm track and timing.  This will be messy for a lot of people and may unfortunately affect my holiday travel plans.  Here's hoping for a day or two shift.
- Cold still coming for the last week of the year.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

A few notes

- Models in pretty good agreement on the Sunday to Monday system.  5-10 cms of snow is a good estimate for this storm.
-  The GFS has been pretty consistent on a storm Wed/Thurs affecting primarily the NE US but with Eastern Ontario catching a piece of it.  The Euro has been flip/flopping on whether to bring it north or not.   The latest run says not.
- The GFS says as well that we will close out the year with a pretty good cold snap.   So be prepared.

This tickled my irony funny bone

Very cold temperatures in Germany causing high energy demands.  There are two energy sources in this picture.  Guess which one is generating. (Source)

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Betting on a White Christmas

Tuesday aft update:  Both the Euro and GFS have pushed the next Wed/Thurs storm further south in their latest runs, completely missing us.  I expect some correction back west over the next few days (hopefully).

Currently the modeling is looking like there will be shovelable snow Sunday into Monday.  But the bigger deal will be next Wednesday into Thursday, if it hits us.   This second system affects us on the Euro model but not on the GFS.  

Monday, December 10, 2012

The coming week

There is a bit of cold after today's system.  If you don't want your car doors frozen shut, I'd suggest coating the door seals with WD40 or something before tonight.

The cold will last a day or two after which not much will happen until late next weekend.  However, there is significant diverange on if/how the system on Sunday will affect us.

Beyond that, it looks like another system may impact us in the middle of next week as well.

Sea Level Rise

Another poster child for the CAGW movement...but uh-oh, there is increasing evidence that there is no evidence in the linkage between the two.  Note again that it is generally accepted among AGW believing scientists that the first half of the 20th century did not have CO2 induced Climate Change while the second half did.   Keep that in mind when reading this excerpt from the abstract (my emphasis):

"The reconstructions account for the approximate constancy of the rate of GMSLR (global-mean sea-level rise) during the 20th century, which shows small or no acceleration, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semi-empirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of our closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the 20th century."

Friday, December 7, 2012

Not much change for Monday's system

First Saturday.  This system is a little more intense than initially thought.   Ottawa will be on the rain/snow line but right now I think it's a few cms of snow.  Wishful thinking perhaps.

Monday's timing is okay but the storm track is a little more north so I think we will get more rain than snow but may get a few cms to start before the change over to rain.  I do think we will get above zero on Monday so that ice rain likely won't be as bad as Env. Can. suggests.

Another storm brewing for the following weekend.

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Here comes winter

Day 10 - 15th temperature anomolies (courtesy of Dr Ryan Maue).  Just sayin'.

Historical Tropical storm charts

With all the hoopla the AGW alarmists are making regarding the past few North Atlantic Hurricane seasons (2012 season is now officially history) where the numbers (of detected cyclones) have been high, I give you a few charts as a big "So what?" (courtesy of Dr. R. Maue).   As you can see below, we've been on a 20 year NEGATIVE trend both on intensity and numbers both globally and hemispherically.   An interesting sidenote, with the southern hemisphere consisting of more ocean than the northern hemisphere, you might think more tropical cyclones occur there.  Not so.  The northern hemisphere has more than double the TC numbers.

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

To get us in the mood....

10 more days!

Update on next week's system

There is a growing concensus on the system next week but unfortunately for the snow geese, the concensus is converging on a storm center track that follows Hwy. 401, give or take a few dozen kilometers.  But first we likely get a dusting of snow on Saturday after which there will be a brief break in the action until about the wee hours of Monday morning.   Given the current forecast track of the Monday system, the storm will start as snow for the morning, changing over to rain in the afternoon (there may be a brief episode of freezing rain in this transistion) and then a change back to snow in the evening/overnight as the storm center passes by.  

If only this were a few weeks from now, it'd be a heck of a snow storm.

Cold globally, generally speaking

Temperature Anomaly (C) (28 Nov 2012 - 04 Dec 2012)

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

A mess early next week

The models are starting to align to give us a pretty big mess early next week, starting either Friday or Sunday (depending on the model) and going to Tuesday.   Right now it's looking like it'll start as snow with a change over to freezing rain and/or rain and then another change over to snow.   Accumulations could be in the order of 5-10cm as it stands at this point on Monday/Tuesday.

Monday, December 3, 2012

18Z GFS going full nasty

Next Monday/Tuesday:

Quick post

Cold front tomorrow afternoon. 
Cool until Thursday.
A front stalls over Ontario on the weekend until early next week when a system that develops and rides along the front sweeps cold air in behind.  But those details are under debate yet as the GFS and JMA make it interesting but the Euro not so much.