Wednesday, December 19, 2012

YFNWG Winter Storm warning!

The models are all aligned with the track, timing and intensity of the next storm.   It's going to start in the wee hours of Friday morning for the Ottawa area and continue until Saturday.  There will be periods of intense snow fall, perhaps a few centimeters per hour.   Total accumulations could be in the order of 20-30 cms.   However the Euro model is output 18 inches for our area.  That is within the realm of possibility but unlikely as ratios won't be that high.   It will be windy with winds 40-60 km/h coming out of the ESE and shifting over the course of the day towards the North.   Just a nasty situation.  Sad I'm missing it.

It will be a day where if you don't have to go out, don't.  Schools will likely be cancelled.

Here is Env. Can. Special Weather Statement about the storm:

A messy winter storm beginning Thursday continuing into Friday.

A low pressure system from the state of Colorado will intensify as it tracks towards Southern Ontario today and Thursday.

Current indications are that precipitation will begin over most of Southern Ontario during the day Thursday. The precipitation may start briefly as wet snow flurries or some freezing rain, but will then change over to rain. The rain should change back to snow Friday or Friday night with some accumulation quite possible before ending Saturday as the cold air of winter finally arrives.

Regions near and north of a line from Wiarton to Muskoka to Brockville are expected to receive more snow than locales further south. Significant snow amounts are quite possible especially in The Bayfield Inlet east to the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region on Friday. Some freezing rain may also be an issue. Snowfall warnings may be issued for some of these regions by Thursday morning if conditions warrant.

Colder air in the wake of this winter storm centre will cause temperatures to drop below freezing in all areas by Friday night. Flurries along with possible snow squalls in the wake of this System may add a fresh white layer of snow on the ground in the Southern Ontario snow belts near Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on

This weather system has the potential to impact transportation  especially in areas that receive accumulating snow and freezing rain.  Driving conditions are expected to deteriorate beginning Thursday. Motorists should be prepared for hazardous winter driving conditions as a result.

The exact track of the low over Southern Ontario will determine how much snow or rain a particular locale will receive. At this stage there is still uncertainty about the exact track of the low. Environment Canada is monitoring this storm closely and will issue further statements as more details become available.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.


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