Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Tuesday morning post...

TWN is no longer innocuous.  Obviously following the Euro model in the development of their forecast, TWN is now predicting a significant snow event this weekend.  Below is the Euro snow map.  The Canadian has gone to some weird solution that isn't reflected in their issued forecast.  So Env. Can. forecast is still not indicative of possible snow amounts.

Monday, December 29, 2014

Late Monday post: Winter is coming...again

Don't be fooled by the innocuous forecasts from Env. Can. and TWN.  Sunday may have quite a snow event.   The models have aligned in an unusual manner.   The GFS and Canadian have a system passing over the lower Great Lakes late Saturday into Sunday, giving the estimated snow amounts in the maps below.  The Euro and Japanese models however have the system shunted well to the south, not affecting Ontario with any significant snow amounts.  Stayed tuned for further updates.

Colder than normal temperatures will last at least two weeks:
Week 1:
Week 2:

Friday, December 26, 2014

Now that's more like it...

24 hr snowfall forecast ending next Sunday morning...

Boxing Day post....

So the Christmas storm was rain for most everybody in southern and eastern Ontario, providing a green Christmas day for much of the area...bummer dude.

Anyway, there will be a turn to cold after this Sunday's sloppy mix of precipitation.   The next weather of significance looks to be next weekend.  However, there is model disagreement on path.  The Canadian and GFS are in the same camp, bringing the storm south of us giving us a glancing blow of snow.   The Euro has it going through the central lakes, giving us a rain/snow mix with the main precip to our north and west.

Stay tuned.

Thursday, December 18, 2014

Christmas storm

The situation developing for next week is complex and evolving.  There are three pieces of energy that may or may not coalesce into a powerful storm for the Great Lakes and NE regions giving rain, freezing rain, snow or a combination of the three.  So the models are still figuring out what, where, and how much.  Fact remains that something of significance is occurring the middle of next week.  I would strongly recommend that you avoid making significant travel plans for Christmas Eve and Day.

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Christmas Eve storm of 2014...

Starting to get moderately excited about a system that's appearing on all the midrange models.   What the Euro is showing is the same as if I drew the maps.  You get the picture.
Stay tuned.

Holiday season outlook...

Another quick post.
By the look of the models, the period starting about Christmas eve will be much more active weather wise with more frequent storms affecting the southern and eastern Ontario regions.
I hope to post regularly during that period.

Sunday, December 14, 2014

A quick Sunday post.

Divergence on the models for this week.

The Euro is still banging the snow drum for us on Wednesday, keeping enough cold air and moisture around to give us a few inches worth.  Also appearing on the model is a major winter storm for the east coast again on next weekend, not affecting Ontario at this time.

The GFS has increased its snow amount for Wednesday and has a very minor system for the week, kinda "meh".

The Canadian has not much snow at all on Wednesday and absolutely nothing for the weekend.

Stayed tuned.

Saturday, December 13, 2014

Another quick Saturday post

Mild until mid next week.  The Euro is more vigorous with the snow next Tuesday night, giving us several inches.  Most other models are giving us a mixed bag of precipitation as they are bringing the system farther north through the central lakes.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Timing of the snow

While we may get a few cms between now and tomorrow afternoon, I believe the bulk of the snow will come between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning.

Monday, December 8, 2014

First snow day of the season?

While the models are all over the place with respect to snow amounts, it is generally looking like a 10 - 15 cm event, mostly falling Wednesday, overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Worse case amounts are in the order of 25 cms.
If there is a snow day, I think Thursday will be it.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Turning into a bigger event...

The east coast storm is getting more vigorous on the models.  Total snow over the next 6 days from the Euro, GFS and Can.

Friday, December 5, 2014

Next week.

There will be a coastal nor'easter next week.  All models agree with that. However in the last few model runs, they've been playing around with the track and intensity such that the some precipitation may come our way, perhaps Tuesday or another day, perhaps a dusting or a few cms.  Stay tuned.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Boring weather

There is nothing exciting on the horizon with respect to the weather.  Dribs and drabs of precipitation and around normal temperatures.   However, mid month we are looking at a period of above normal temperatures lasting at least a few days, stretching perhaps to Christmas week.  That does put in jeopardy a white Christmas, though the odds still quite high for a white Christmas.
Definitely a different December than last year.  But beware January.

Tuesday, December 2, 2014

Tonight and tomorrow

I have a hard time believing that there will a change over to rain tomorrow, given what I see in the modeling.  It's still colder than what they forecasted for this point (4PM Tues).   If that continues,  I don't see it happening.