Sunday, March 30, 2014

Bit of a surprise this Sunday morn..

Did NOT see this coming.  Even yesterday, all the models had the precip going south of us, with Ottawa getting grazed, if at all.   See map from A/W below:


Guess this is one of the jabs I was talking about...

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Quick post

Env. Can. is pulling out a 5-10 cm dump tonight in their latest forecast.   I am having a hard time believing it.  Most short term models are giving us at most 5cms before the change over to rain tomorrow morning...

We could look a whole lot whiter again tomorrow...until it all melts tomorrow afternoon.

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Winter's on the ropes...

But not down.   While we will get closer to "normal" and we will see a lot of the white stuff melt away, I think there will still be a jab or two that will straighten us up for a bit, perhaps even a body blow.   In the mean time, enjoy the milder temps this weekend.

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

In case you were wondering...

Ottawa Airport broke a 74 year record yesterday.   Yesterday's measured low temperature of -20.1C broke the March 24th -20.0 C record set in 1940.

We also broke a 53 year record on March 17th.  Old Mar. 17 record was -20.6C in 1961. In 2014 we measured -21.6C.

But do we hear that in the media?  Me thinks not.

Friday, March 21, 2014

Snowfall warning

1:15 PM EDT Friday 21 March 2014
Snowfall warning in effect for:
  • Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
A heavy snowfall expected tonight.

It may be the first full day of spring, but it's no surprise that mother nature is still in a wintery mood. A potent disturbance currently over Minnesota is expected to carve a path across Southern Ontario tonight with the centre of low pressure likely to cross the Toronto area after midnight.

A period of heavy snow is expected beginning late this evening near Lake Huron reaching the Barrie area shortly after midnight and far Eastern Ontario later tonight. The snow is expected to be very heavy at times with snowfall rates of more than 3 centimetres per hour. Although the duration of snow is not expected to be significant, the accumulation of heavy snow will likely exceed 15 centimetres before it tapers off later tonight near Lake Huron and over Eastern Ontario Saturday morning.

Travellers are urged to use caution tonight into Saturday morning due to visibilities of 200 metres or less in heavy snow as well as significant and rapid accumulation on untreated roads.

Speaking of Spring...

There's been a curious shift in the modeling.  While next week is still going to be much colder than normal, the modeling has started to trend toward a flip to warmer weather (what!) during the last couple day of March continuing well in to April.    The GFS, Euro and Can. have a system coming through the Great Lakes late next week (exact timing and track TBC).  But after this storm, the trend on both the GFS and Euro ensembles (not so much on the JMA) is towards warming.  We shall see what we shall see...

Snow map for tomorrow

Welcome to Spring.   This looks very much like I posted on Monday.
 



Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Quick morning post

Today/tonight's snow/rain.  It's going to be sloppy.  The majority of the snow will be to the north of us in the higher elevations of the Gatineau hills.  The rain/snow line will over Ottawa tonight as temperatures increase.  As a result I don't think we get as much snow as currently predicted by Env. Can (5-10cm).  TWN is more in line with my thinking with 2-5 cms.

For Saturday, things are continuing to line up for 10cm + snow fall Saturday morning.  I think Env. Can is out to lunch with its rain or snow forecast as I (and TWN) think it's all snow.

Monday, March 17, 2014

Quick lunch time post...

Late Wednesday we'll see a system go by to our north.   The precipitation will start as snow, change over to rain (freezing perhaps) and then back to snow.  Accumulations will not be high, perhaps 2-5 cms.
Saturday may be a bigger deal with a few models now showing a storm going just to our south.  If that is correct, then we're looking at another 10-15 cms on Saturday.
Post Saturday storm, we are looking at much below normal temperatures next week, so much so that Great Lake ice may increase again from its current levels, which is, dare I say it, unprecedented for the end of March.

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Do not go gentle into that good night...

This winter will resist yielding to spring, kicking and screaming as the saying goes.   I think we have one or two dumps of snow before we are done done.   The intense sun wants to warm things up but the source region of air over the last week of March will be the Arctic, giving us a below average temperature anomaly over the last week (map below).  Note that the current "normal" temps are a high of +3C and low of -6C (for a mean of -1.5C).


Thursday, March 13, 2014

Don't believe it for a second.

Here is the Enviroment Canada bulletin on preliminary snow totals from the recent snow:

"ONTARIO

AWCN11 CWTO
Updated weather summary for Southern Ontario and the
National Capital Region issued by Environment Canada
At 1:10 P.M. EDT Thursday 13 March 2014.

In shocking contrast to Tuesday's spring-like weather, an intense 
March storm tracked south of the Great Lakes yesterday and provided 
yet another wintery reminder of the winter of 2013-14.

The following is a summary of weather event information received by 
Environment Canada as of 8 A.M. Thursday.

Location                      event description

Windsor                       17 centimetres of snow
Chatham                       19 centimetres of snow
Tillsonburg                   22 centimetres of snow
Dorchester                    21 centimetres of snow
Ridgetown                     19 centimetres of snow estimated
London                        15 centimetres of snow
Woodstock                     21 centimetres of snow
New Glasgow east of Chatham   14 centimetres of snow
Kitchener                     16 centimetres of snow estimated 
Thorold                       31 centimetres of snow
Grimsby                       22 centimetres of snow
Hamilton mountain             22 centimetres of snow
Welland                       24 centimetres of snow
Mississauga                   19 centimetres of snow
The Toronto region            14 to 18 centimetres of snow
Toronto Pearson Airport       10 centimetres of snow
Tapley (near Peterborough)    18 centimetres of snow
Trenton Airport               16 centimetres of snow
Ottawa Airport                8 centimetres of snow
Cornwall                      25 to 30 centimetres of snow

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial 
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

END/OSPC
"
 
Notice how the Airports (Toronto and Ottawa) are the lowest values on this list.   These also are the only weather stations on this list run by NAV Canada.   I don't believe that Ottawa had only 8 cms yesterday.  Not for a second.  I shoveled that snow and as far as I could tell there was definitely 10-15 cms.
 
Wrt to Toronto A/P, all around had least 16cms.  Mississauga, just a few kms down the 401 had 19cms.   I think there is a serious issue with the NAV Canada weather monitoring equipment.  Unfortunately, this is the data that goes into the official climatic record for posterity.

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Environment Canada Seven Day forecast.

Hilarious.


Guessing that was a little more than 10cms

Ya think?

While I didn't think we'd get nothing, I also didn't think we'd get this much.  Interesting dynamics with this system. How often does it get colder in front and during a storm?  Not very often.   That's what happened with this system and I think that is what the models a rough time with.  Cold air was pressing south at the same time the storm was trying to cut north.   So the snow to liquid equivalent ratio were pretty high I think, 15:1 or something.

Tuesday, March 11, 2014

Model cha cha cha...

1:00PM update:  Morning run of the NAM now has Ottawa getting no snow.  Dang it.


Last night the NAM model got me all exited.  It had shifted the path of the current storm a significant way north on last night's run, putting the Ottawa region in the zone of 15cm+.   But this morning I see that the overnight run shift it back south, not as far but enough that we again will be missing the major stuff.   Below is Accuweather's latest snow map.  I think that we will be on the low end of the scale and be lucky if we get as much as 10cm.

Friday, March 7, 2014

Figures...

Our just for funnsies now looks like this, a little earlier and more south.  Rats.


Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Another just for funnsies...

Next Friday from the Euro:



As an aside, the table is set for a potential big one to come along next week.  A big one apprears then falls off the models, not just the Euro but the Can and GFS too...

If I had the time..

I would write a nice long post talking about the past 3 months (Dec-Feb is meteorological winter) including a mention of the post where I first speculated what this winter be like, that I speculated that it would be colder and snowier than normal, and how it turned out pretty much that way with the core of the cold being centered on the center of the continent (Dec-Feb anomaly map):

I would also mention the post where I speculated about the Great Lake ice situation where we could get on par with the 70's in terms of coverage.  Then I would show this chart where it shows the Great Lake being the highest amount in the last 35 years.

If only I had the time....