Spring will come...

By the time next weekend comes around, winter with all its lingering shtuff will be long forgotten and Spring will take hold.  That's my hope.  I am ready for snow to be done.   And the models are going towards that.

For example, the GFS has this nice burnt umber colour positive temperature anomaly for our area next Sunday (map courtesy of Weatherbell).  In fact, the GFS has no below 0 C temperatures day 6 thru 10 in Ottawa.  Safe for the flowers to come now.  Perhaps.

A look ahead

Remaining mild and spring like for the next week or so.  Monday/Tuesday look to be quite wet.  Later next week will have a cooling trend with below normal temps likely.. But not snow.  I think there no more snow this spring...unlike the US front range.  Ouch. (map courtesy of Weather Bell)

Winter's on the ropes...

But not down.   While we will get closer to "normal" and we will see a lot of the white stuff melt away, I think there will still be a jab or two that will straighten us up for a bit, perhaps even a body blow.   In the mean time, enjoy the milder temps this weekend.

Speaking of Spring...

There's been a curious shift in the modeling.  While next week is still going to be much colder than normal, the modeling has started to trend toward a flip to warmer weather (what!) during the last couple day of March continuing well in to April.    The GFS, Euro and Can. have a system coming through the Great Lakes late next week (exact timing and track TBC).  But after this storm, the trend on both the GFS and Euro ensembles (not so much on the JMA) is towards warming.  We shall see what we shall see...

Do not go gentle into that good night...

This winter will resist yielding to spring, kicking and screaming as the saying goes.   I think we have one or two dumps of snow before we are done done.   The intense sun wants to warm things up but the source region of air over the last week of March will be the Arctic, giving us a below average temperature anomaly over the last week (map below).  Note that the current "normal" temps are a high of +3C and low of -6C (for a mean of -1.5C).

Happy Spring..err..Summer..err..whatever.