Thursday's storm

There is still a lot of model uncertainty with respect to the track and timing of the storm on Thurs.  Pick any solution between the CGEM, GFS or ECMWF, it will still be messy.

The GFS solution is the fastest and most northern of the three.  The storm track in its solution has the storm center going over Lake Huron to just west of the Ottawa area by Thursday evening (map below).  This track and timing allows the storm to get ahead of the coldest air aloft, causing little snow for the Ottawa area, but more of a ice mix to rain.

The CGEM solution has the storm center sliding over Lake Erie to just south of Lake Ontario with a slower track. Thursday evening it has the storm over Lake Erie (map below).  This will give more snow and a brief mix of ice.

The ECMWF solution has the storm center going just south of the great lakes at a slower pace.  It has the storm over Ohio Thursday evening.  This give the Ottawa region mainly snow.  Sorry, can't show any Euro maps.

So is the GFS jumping the gun or is the ECMWF dragging it feet?   Will the CGEM come up the middle and be right for once?   Stay tuned to find out.



Maps courtesy of Weatherbell.

 
 
 

Next week!

Mentioned a couple days ago on my Twitter feed that model output for next week Tuesday/Wednesday had a similar setup and storm as this week.   The storm is still there on the models in one form or another.  Look for firming of track and precip in the next couple days.

Models are lining up for Tuesday's snow...

The ECMWF is still on board with Tuesday snow (not allowed to show its map).  The maps shown are courtesy of Weatherbell.

The GFS:

The NAM:

The CGEM

Next Tuesday night...

As noted on my twitter feed, all the medium range models are now on board with the storm currently time late next Tuesday.  When the ECMWF backed away the storm to the east, CGEM and GFS jumped on board with the current track.  Then the next run of the Euro moved the storm back to even a further west track which I think will correct back again.  Even so here is the latest GFS.  Fun. 

Next Wednesday..

For the last three days, the Euro model has consistently shown a snow storm for us next Wednesday (below, map courtesy of Penn State eWall).  GFS and CGEM do not show it.  We shall see.