Thursday, February 21, 2013

Next week..

Update:  Handy pic from Accuweather. explains the storm shift.

I had to do a double take on the 3:30 Env. Can. forecast this aft (below).   I see that they can't make up their mind whether it'll rain or snow on Saturday.  I think it'll snow mostly.  But that's not what made me double take.   Their high temp for Monday is 6C.  Yes, on the plus side.  So that made me check it out on other models...

We are in an interesting pattern over north america now.  We have an omega block over Hudson Bay and northern Quebec.   Systems coming from the SW run up into that block and then try to skirt around it.   The blizzard currently slamming the American midwest will move NE but only will get to southwestern Ontario, weakens, skirts east and then it gets to east coast to ramp up again.  The system next week Tuesday/Wednesday looks like it get stuck in an eddy over Ontario and so hangs out for 2 or 3 days, giving us light precip.  However there is significant disagreement between the models on this and it looks like they're have a really tough time with this pattern and not dealing well with the low level air temps.  That being said, 6C on Monday may be feasible.  As always, stay tuned.

Issued : 3:30 PM EST Thursday 21 February 2013
Tonight:  Clearing early this evening. Wind northwest 20 km/h gusting to 40 becoming light early this evening. Low minus 10.
Friday: Increasing cloudiness. High zero. UV index 3 or moderate.
Friday night: Cloudy. Light snow beginning before morning. Wind east 20 km/h becoming light late in the evening. Low minus 4.
Saturday: Snow or rain. High plus 2.
Sunday: Cloudy with 40 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 5. High plus 1.
Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 5. High 6.
Tuesday:  Snow. Low minus 4. High zero.
Wednesday:  Snow. Low minus 4. High plus 2.

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