It has been interesting to watch the models converge...somewhat. Even 48 hours out there is still a few hundred miles of variance between the various models' solution. For example, the Canadian and Euro have the storm center passing just south, almost over the lower Great Lakes, Erie and Ontario. The NAM and GFS have the center passing well south of the lake and taking it to the east coast.
So what I think is going to happen is this:
- the storm will pass south of the lakes Thursday night, over central PA and NY. It will give eastern Ontario a few cms of snow.
- the may be another dusting Saturday afternoon as a very weak clipper slides through.
- then again on Sunday as a weak cold front comes through.
- I am a little puzzled by the forecasted temperatures. I find it hard to believe that it will be at or above zero for Friday and Sat. I think they are underestimating the low level cold air and that it'll stay below zero on Friday and Saturday. I am more certain about Saturday than Friday.