Monday, January 16, 2012

Cold and snow...

Much colder air was around.  Interesting article about it here.  Even Kemptville got down to about -27C.

Regarding Tuesday's system.   Unfortunately the models have trended back.   So my call is that we will start with a few cms of snow overnight with a likely change over to freezing rain or ice pellets in the morning.  Then a change over back to snow later in the day with a few more cms of accumulation.   Here is Env. Can. SWS:
A low pressure system over Northern Missouri is slowly deepening as
it tracks northeastwards towards the Lower Great Lakes. It is
expected to cross Southern Ontario into Southern Quebec on Tuesday.
This low will be moving along a front dividing mild and fairly moist
air to the south and much colder Arctic air in place over Northern
Ontario. Computer models are generally in agreement that the low
should race from lower Michigan to the southern tip of Lake Huron to
around Barrie then Ottawa on Tuesday. The current cold air over much
of southern and portions of Eastern Ontario will gradually be
Flushed out of the region through tonight before the precipitation
arrives. This will result in primarily rain across Southwestern
Ontario through Niagara and to the north of Lake Ontario.
Significant amounts of snow are likely from the Bruce Peninsula to
the east of Georgian Bay into Eastern Ontario to the northwest of
National Capital Region, beginning early Tuesday. Total snowfall
amounts of 10 to locally 15 centimetres are likely. The quick speed
of the low would preclude any significantly higher amounts. A
Warning has not been issued since the amounts are expected to be
Less than the warning criteria of 15 cm in 12 hours. Some
Significant freezing rain is also likely on Tuesday in a swath from
the Grey-Bruce region through Muskoka and Bancroft to near Ottawa.
Freezing rain warnings may be issued.
Travellers should be prepared for hazardous winter driving
Conditions Tuesday, in areas north of the track of the low. The snow
will taper off Tuesday night.
Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Watches and
warnings may be issued as required.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Longer term, it looks like we are going to be warmer than normal for a few days next week with a return to cold at the end of the month.

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