Well, I am officially...wrong about today

As of 12 PM, it's +10C (at the airport) which means even if it does not go up any more (likely will), 10 is closer to 12 than my 6 and EC was more right than me.

So why?   I dunno.  I've shown in the past how EC models have over estimated temperatures, even daytime temps.   So I can't say why they were successful today over other models that, historically speaking, are better.   I admit it, I'm stumped.

But there is still tomorrows temps.  That is still on.

Seriously??

EC is predicting a high of +12 degrees tomorrow. So is TWN which is troubling... But it's only the Canadian model that is showing that high of a temp.   The Euro, GFS and NAM show temps in the mid single digits.   In fact the GFS and NAM show Thursday warmer than Wednesday.   EC has +8 and +7 C as the high and low temp respectively on Thursday.   So, my prediction:

Wednesday: High temp of +6C and a low of -4C reached early in the morning.
Thursday:  High temp of +8C and a low of -1C reached late Thursday as the cold front comes through

Light snow shower on Friday as a very weak clipper passes through and a brisk north wind.

Let's see who's more accurate.

Brief post

It'll warm up Wednesday but not to double digits.   Cool front Thursday bringing rain.  Coolish period Friday to Sunday and then warming up again.

3 Degrees wrong

The last forecast by EC for last night's overnight low was released at 3:30 PM yesterday.   As posted yesterday, it was forecasting an overnight low of -14C.   That forecast was based on the yesterday's 12Z (12 PM GMT or 7 AM EST) run of the EC model.

Ottawa reached -14C by 10 PM.   It reached -17C by 5 AM.   So the model was 3 degrees wrong less than 24hrs out.   Yet the NAM, GFS and Euro were consistent on the depth of cold that would reach us.  I first mentioned the cold last Tuesday.   

EC's model sucks.

Ottawa cold

-12.6 C at 7:00PM at the airport.   It's fallen a degree a hour for the last three.  Do you think it'll get colder than the EC overnight low of -14C?   I think so.

Free falling...and windy

And yet, not far enough.  It will get colder than this...

Latest temp forecast from EC:
Saturday: High plus 3 with temperature falling to zero in the afternoon.
Saturday night: Low minus 11.
Sunday: High minus 7.
Monday: Low minus 14. High minus 6.

Wind warning associated with the cold front/flashfreeze:


Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans

3:17 PM EST Friday 02 March 2012
Wind warning for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans issued
Very strong southwest winds tonight through Saturday in the wake of a cold front.

A cold front associated with a developing storm system is forecast to move from west to east across Southern Ontario tonight through Saturday morning. Very strong southwest winds of 60 km/h with gusts to 90 km/h are likely in the wake of this front. Even stronger winds are possible in exposed areas along the shores of the Great Lakes, where sustained winds could reach 70 km/h and gusts may exceed 100 km/h.

Over Southwestern Ontario this evening, the strong winds could be ushered in by thunderstorm activity which may develop along or just in advance of the cold front.

The strong winds are forecast to persist through most of Saturday then moderate somewhat by Saturday evening.

Early week temps.

EC has lowered their forecast temps for Sunday and Monday (Sunday: Low minus 6. High minus 5.  Monday: Low minus 12. High minus 6) but they are still too high. I think Sunday will get down to the minus double digits and Monday morning will get down to the minus high teens.   TWN is more in line with my thinking.

For those with a bend for science

I agree with AW, a must read for its perspective on the certainty of climate science.

Woot!

http://www.thehobbitblog.com/?p=4683

And in case you missed the first one:

http://www.thehobbitblog.com/?p=4443

Is winter done a week from now?

First things first.  The models have converged in showing the Friday storm on a NE track over Lake Huron.   So that means place like Sault Ste. Marie will have blizzard conditions while we have a little bit of snow, changing over to rain Friday evening/night, changing back to snow on the cold front passing through late Saturday.    The cold front will bring colder than normal temps that will moderate towards normal after a 4 or 5 day period.  EC is out to lunch with their current temp forecasts for early next week ( Sunday: Low minus 3. High minus 1.    Monday:  Low minus 7. High minus 1.)

After that period, winter will seem to have decided to be done.  Below is the map for average anomoly for a week starting next Friday (source).  Note the big brown patch over us.    We may be hitting positive double digits in that time period.  And I am not seeing much hope beyond that either for much winter weather... So enjoy today.

Update:  I also will note the EC forecast high for tomorrow is +1, not the +8 it was saying on Tuesday.