Monday, March 5, 2012

3 Degrees wrong

The last forecast by EC for last night's overnight low was released at 3:30 PM yesterday.   As posted yesterday, it was forecasting an overnight low of -14C.   That forecast was based on the yesterday's 12Z (12 PM GMT or 7 AM EST) run of the EC model.

Ottawa reached -14C by 10 PM.   It reached -17C by 5 AM.   So the model was 3 degrees wrong less than 24hrs out.   Yet the NAM, GFS and Euro were consistent on the depth of cold that would reach us.  I first mentioned the cold last Tuesday.   

EC's model sucks.

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