The last forecast by EC for last night's overnight low was released at 3:30 PM yesterday. As posted yesterday, it was forecasting an overnight low of -14C. That forecast was based on the yesterday's 12Z (12 PM GMT or 7 AM EST) run of the EC model.
Ottawa reached -14C by 10 PM. It reached -17C by 5 AM. So the model was 3 degrees wrong less than 24hrs out. Yet the NAM, GFS and Euro were consistent on the depth of cold that would reach us. I first mentioned the cold last Tuesday.
EC's model sucks.