Looks like the models have shifted west as hoped and we're expecting a thump of snow tomorrow, starting tomorrow morning in southern Ontario and in the afternoon in Ottawa, intensifying as it comes. It will reach peak intensity overnight Tuesday so we will wake up on Wednesday to a nice 6-12" layer of snow. Look for snow amounts on the Env. Can . afternoon forecast (3:30PM) to go up (currently a measly 5cm) as their latest model output has finally shifted the storm west.
For the weekend, there's looks to be a clipper coming through that'll give us another few cms.
Update: 5:30PM Monday. Storm watch from Env. Canada:
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
3:14 PM EST Monday 26 December 2011
Winter storm watch for
Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans issued
..Potential for heavy wet snowfall in excess of 15 cm during Tuesday night..
A developing low over the southern states will track northeast along the Appalachians Tuesday and intensify as it tracks into Southern Quebec on Tuesday night. In advance of this system, precipitation mainly in the form of light rain, will spread into the watch area Tuesday afternoon. As the low intensifies the rain will change into heavy wet snow during Tuesday evening. Before the snow ends Wednesday morning, total snowfall amounts in excess of 15 cm are possible with the highest amounts expected closer to the Quebec border.
In addition, as the low moves into Quebec a sharp Arctic cold front will cross the area overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The much colder air behind the front means that temperatures will drop sharply from near zero to well below freezing in a matter of hours. While this may result in some slippery surfaces it is unlikely that widespread flash freeze conditions will occur as too much snow will have fallen. Either way, the combination of the snowfall and plummeting temperatures will make for a difficult Wednesday morning commute.