Tuesday, December 6, 2011


I've been just comparing the 6Z operational run of the GFS model for day 6-10 500 mb height anomolies (essentially where the ridges and troughs lie) with the GFS ensemble (same model, slightly different input parameters) mean for day 6-10 500mb height anomolies and they are the polar opposite:

GFS operational 6Z run:
GFS Ensemble 6Z run:


The operational run would indicate a warm up for us and the ensemble would indicate cooler weather for us.   I am leaning towards the ensemble for two reasons.  First the ensemble mean is a better indicator of future trends than a single run of the GFS.  Secondly, there is support for the ensemble from other models:


Canadian Ensemble (Day 8):

So I still see support that we won't see any major thaws for a while.   Whether snow is included is unknown.

No comments:

Post a Comment