Thursday, December 22, 2011

Not much happening.

Yeah, about that Christmas storm, it's not happening.   Both the Canadian and the Euro fell off the wagon in yesterday's run.   The problem essentially is that storm energy in the northern jet stream isn't phasing (joining) with energy in the southern jet stream to create a bigger/potent storm.   So all you're left with is two systems that are a whole lotta nothing, just meh.

And I am not seeing anything of note for a while.   We may get a little dusting tomorrow as a meh system passes to the south and another dusting on Sunday from a meh system passing to the north.   The Euro is trying to phase something for the New Years weekend but we'll see.

I had a quick look (don't have time for an extensive look) at past years with similar atmospheric and La Nina conditions.   I was able to find a year with similar Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and La Nina conditions.   And I couldn't find one that was real close.   The closest would be the 92/93 and 94/95 winters but they were neutral to El Nino years.   Both of those winters had mild starts in the east side of North America to January.   Then February was brutally cold.    I'm not saying that will happen given the remaining differences but it's a possibility.

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