Monday, April 2, 2012
The March Heatwave
NOAA has released their preliminary analysis of the March Heat Wave. They call the event a Black Swan event, that is an event that has an extremely low probability, a very high impact, and only retrospective predictability, ie limited, if any, prospective predictability. Unfortunately, imho, they conclude with a nod to AGW with an ambiguous statement that they estimate that the magnitude of the heat wave was increased 5 to 10% by GHG effects. I've seen similar estimates for the 2011 Texas drought but there is no way to prove or measure that effect. So these estimates is purely based on model outputs, not on observations.