In the near term, mostly rain tonight into tomorrow. Cooler temps come in Wednesday for a few days. Saturday looks like a clipper coming through southern Ont that will put a few cms down in Ottawa.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Booyah!
Okay, I must say the latest models have made me drool...more than usual anyway. Remember about a week ago, I posted about a monster storm coming. For the past while it had "dissappeared" off the models or wasn't very significant. But yesterday afternoon's version of the Euro showed a big storm again and now the latest GFS has joined in for a storm around next Tuesday. And they're both showing a snow storm hammering all of southern and eastern Ontario with 30+cms of snow. I am showing you part of a map from the Euro that show the snowfall totals for the next 9 days. I know it may be hard to see, so for reference, Ottawa is at the top of the red triangle-ish 18 inch line and the bottom is right around Kingston.
I'm trying not to get too excited about this prospect as it is more than a week away, but I'll be watching this closely.
In the near term, mostly rain tonight into tomorrow. Cooler temps come in Wednesday for a few days. Saturday looks like a clipper coming through southern Ont that will put a few cms down in Ottawa.
In the near term, mostly rain tonight into tomorrow. Cooler temps come in Wednesday for a few days. Saturday looks like a clipper coming through southern Ont that will put a few cms down in Ottawa.
Rainforests
Remember when the rainforests were all going to dissappear because of global warming? Well, nevermind.
Friday, March 8, 2013
All over the place
With respect to the Monday/Tuesday system on the models.
The Euro has shift north. The GFS south. As of now, we will get little else but rain.
Here's hoping we get a mix of the two.
The Euro has shift north. The GFS south. As of now, we will get little else but rain.
Here's hoping we get a mix of the two.
Comment to and response from Env. Can.
I had noticed that Env. Can. observations at the Ottawa A/P were way off for the last storm so I provided the following feedback via their website:
There are some significant issues with the observation equipment at Ottawa INT'L. For example, for February 27th, the hourly observations note only "Snow Showers" for the afternoon when heavy wet snow was the reality. Secondly, the daily data shows a total snow amount of 14.2 cms while the reality was approx double that at 25-30cms (compare with Ottawa CDA station total snow of 29 cms).
This is the response:
Hello Fred Nieuwenhuis,
Your request was forwarded to our office. Thank you for your feedback. In response to your comments, the weather conditions are reported by human observers. For the amounts, we have received a lot of complaints indicating that the snowfall amount reported by Ottawa Int'l were too low for the February 27th storm. You will find below an explanation of the differences. I am unable to advise you on what information you will use, - maybe the official numbers with a reference to other reliable sources - these can be the weather summary (see link below) and the data from the Ottawa CDA site.
The amount of snowfall recorded at Ottawa Int'l was 14.2 cm with a water equivalent of 25 mm. This snow was very wet and there was a lot of compaction with the moisture. In the hourly weather reports issued from the airport for this date, Ice pellets were reported, and this would definitely produce heavy solid snow. There were high winds during the storm, and as in the past, the observation site at the airport probably did not capture the snow within its measuring area - snow may have blown elsewhere.
The other site in Ottawa at the CDA reported 29 cm. This location may have a more protected snow measuring area.
http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01|2013-02-27&Year=2013&Month=2&Day=01
This was truly a very messy storm. The amounts of snowfall were variable based on the location of measurement, and it may have depended on when the snow was measured. The wetness and weight of the snow reduced the depth if it was not measured at the right time. If the temperature was a bit colder, then the snow was less dense. If the temperature was warmer, then the snow may have melted almost immediately.
- link to weather summary bulletin issued after the storm, reporting 25-30 cm for the Ottawa area:
http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/bulletins/alphanumeric/20130228/AW/CWTO/16/AWCN11_CWTO_281619___71428
We have created a spreadsheet with the raw bulletins from Ottawa Int'l and we have posted it on our ftp site to assist clients looking for the missing data. This information is in the files Ottawa 2012 and 2013. Please note that this information is raw data, and is subject to corrections at a later date.
To access, link to: ftp://wtoftpa.on.ec.gc.ca
Username: ontarioclimate
Password: 4climateData (case sensitive)
I hope the information provided will be helpful. Do not hesitate to contact us if you have additional questions or comments.
....
I think I will provide further comment because there is several issues with the response:
- the human observers obviously need training to distinguish between snow showers and heavy snow.
- wet snow doesn't blow around. Once it hits ground it sticks.
- the location dependency, while true in a general sense doesn't hold water in this case. I live just a few kms as the crow flies from the a/p and there was definitely close to 30cm of snow. I shovelled it.
There are some significant issues with the observation equipment at Ottawa INT'L. For example, for February 27th, the hourly observations note only "Snow Showers" for the afternoon when heavy wet snow was the reality. Secondly, the daily data shows a total snow amount of 14.2 cms while the reality was approx double that at 25-30cms (compare with Ottawa CDA station total snow of 29 cms).
This is the response:
----- Original Message -----
From: Ontario Climate Centre
Sent: Thursday, March 07, 2013 4:36 PM
Subject: RE: Environment Canada Ser: C0306CZLEB NIRT:0005958
Your request was forwarded to our office. Thank you for your feedback. In response to your comments, the weather conditions are reported by human observers. For the amounts, we have received a lot of complaints indicating that the snowfall amount reported by Ottawa Int'l were too low for the February 27th storm. You will find below an explanation of the differences. I am unable to advise you on what information you will use, - maybe the official numbers with a reference to other reliable sources - these can be the weather summary (see link below) and the data from the Ottawa CDA site.
The amount of snowfall recorded at Ottawa Int'l was 14.2 cm with a water equivalent of 25 mm. This snow was very wet and there was a lot of compaction with the moisture. In the hourly weather reports issued from the airport for this date, Ice pellets were reported, and this would definitely produce heavy solid snow. There were high winds during the storm, and as in the past, the observation site at the airport probably did not capture the snow within its measuring area - snow may have blown elsewhere.
The other site in Ottawa at the CDA reported 29 cm. This location may have a more protected snow measuring area.
http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ONT&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01|2013-02-27&Year=2013&Month=2&Day=01
This was truly a very messy storm. The amounts of snowfall were variable based on the location of measurement, and it may have depended on when the snow was measured. The wetness and weight of the snow reduced the depth if it was not measured at the right time. If the temperature was a bit colder, then the snow was less dense. If the temperature was warmer, then the snow may have melted almost immediately.
- link to weather summary bulletin issued after the storm, reporting 25-30 cm for the Ottawa area:
http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/bulletins/alphanumeric/20130228/AW/CWTO/16/AWCN11_CWTO_281619___71428
We have created a spreadsheet with the raw bulletins from Ottawa Int'l and we have posted it on our ftp site to assist clients looking for the missing data. This information is in the files Ottawa 2012 and 2013. Please note that this information is raw data, and is subject to corrections at a later date.
To access, link to: ftp://wtoftpa.on.ec.gc.ca
Username: ontarioclimate
Password: 4climateData (case sensitive)
I hope the information provided will be helpful. Do not hesitate to contact us if you have additional questions or comments.
....
I think I will provide further comment because there is several issues with the response:
- the human observers obviously need training to distinguish between snow showers and heavy snow.
- wet snow doesn't blow around. Once it hits ground it sticks.
- the location dependency, while true in a general sense doesn't hold water in this case. I live just a few kms as the crow flies from the a/p and there was definitely close to 30cm of snow. I shovelled it.
Time change this weekend
Change your clocks 1hr ahead tomorrow night. You're getting 1 hr less sleep! Ughh, like I need any less sleep.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Monday's storm
Yes the timeframe has shifted from Tuesday to Monday. This is largely due to the models catching on to the splitting of the energy. The first piece will form a system that will pass to our north heading for northern Quebec. We will be in the warm sector which will bring us showers overnight Sunday into Monday morning until the cold front behind the first system comes through. The second piece will be riding the frontal boundery. Currently it is looking like we'll get 5-10cm of wet snow later on Monday.
This all being said, there is a fair amount of disagreement with how all this plays out so stayed tuned.
This all being said, there is a fair amount of disagreement with how all this plays out so stayed tuned.
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
Talk about a divergence
Lunchtime update: The latest GFS has come around to a Euro type solution...so stay tuned.
Regarding next Tuesday's system.
The GFS drives the storm over the central Great Lakes so by Tuesday morning the storm center is just east of James Bay. This solution would give a most rain event with a brief change over to snow as the trailing cold front comes through.
The Euro takes the storm just south of the lower Great lakes (Erie & Ontario) such that the storm center is over northern New York state Tuesday morning. This solution would give us another thump of heavy wet snow.
Guess which solution I'm rooting for.
Regarding next Tuesday's system.
The GFS drives the storm over the central Great Lakes so by Tuesday morning the storm center is just east of James Bay. This solution would give a most rain event with a brief change over to snow as the trailing cold front comes through.
The Euro takes the storm just south of the lower Great lakes (Erie & Ontario) such that the storm center is over northern New York state Tuesday morning. This solution would give us another thump of heavy wet snow.
Guess which solution I'm rooting for.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Next week..
Since this week is pretty blah (enjoy those temperatures by the way), I will look into next week.
Our first weather feature of note will be Monday into Tuesday. As of now, the GFS is giving us a mostly rain event whilst the Euro is giving us a mostly snow event. Given track records, I'd go with the snow.
Beyond the above system, the models diverge. The GFS has most of Canada colder than normal past day eight (next Thursday-ish), while the Euro has the cold more concentrated in the plains. Given the GFS had overdone the cold this past weekend from a few days earlier, I'd tend to think that we'll have more normal temps to perhaps a little below normal during that period.
Both models have a monster storm in and around day 12...stay tuned.
I don't think the prairies are in for spring any time soon. Spring for us may have to wait until the end of March...
Our first weather feature of note will be Monday into Tuesday. As of now, the GFS is giving us a mostly rain event whilst the Euro is giving us a mostly snow event. Given track records, I'd go with the snow.
Beyond the above system, the models diverge. The GFS has most of Canada colder than normal past day eight (next Thursday-ish), while the Euro has the cold more concentrated in the plains. Given the GFS had overdone the cold this past weekend from a few days earlier, I'd tend to think that we'll have more normal temps to perhaps a little below normal during that period.
Both models have a monster storm in and around day 12...stay tuned.
I don't think the prairies are in for spring any time soon. Spring for us may have to wait until the end of March...
Monday, March 4, 2013
Friday, March 1, 2013
Meh...
Looks we are in a "meh" weather period with nothing much happening from the next week or so. The US mid-atlantic states are looking to get pounded the middle of next week but we won't feel and effects of that.
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