Temperature is going to drop soon

As of 12:50PM Pembroke is down to -1C, Bancroft is down to -2C.   We should see our temperatures dropped soon.   There are some heavy bands of snow associated with the front so we may see some white on the ground this afternoon.

Cool video of the 2011 Atlantic Tropical storm season

Time lapse video from Satellite images.   I found it especially interesting to see how the jet stream can just destroy an established tropical storm.

Working out pretty good

Last week Wednesday I posted "The 29/30th may be messy".   I'd say that's working out pretty well.

Don't be fooled...and coming snow

By our warmth:  the northern hemispheric snow cover is above normal, Russia has it all. :) :



I think our best chance to get a dose of snow will be next Monday as system develops along a front boundery.   If enough cold air can be in place, then we could have a dump.

Changes blowing in the wind

Long range models are indicating that a pattern change/shift is coming where the mean trough position will be more towards the central/eastern portion of the continent rather than the west.   This means more "seasonable" temperatures and thereby snow opportunities for a while.  

Look for this to happen in early December.

It's all going to melt

Unfortunately this isn't the snow that will stick around for the rest of the season.  It'll melt over the next few days.  The models are all over the place for early next week with cutoff lows and slowing cold fronts, rain and snow.  The 29/30th may be messy.

Climategate 2.0

Two years ago, on the eve of the Copenhagen climate conference, unknown person(s) released thousands of documents revealing the machinations of the warmist climate scientists.   It was dubbed Climategate.

The next climate conference is happening shortly in Durban and it's happened again.   Anothe cache of revealing emails and other documents from the warmists have been released.    Details here:

http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/
http://climateaudit.org/2011/11/22/new-climategate-emails/
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2011/11/22/breaking-news-foia-2011-has-arrived/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/22/climategate-2-0/
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2011/son-of-climategate/

Cool video

http://vimeo.com/32001208

Wednesday..

Could be interesting.   First off, Env. Can is calling for periods of snow.   I initially discounted it last week.    The GFS model is still keeping the precip south of us...but its regional counterpart model, the NAM, is having Ottawa catching the northern edge of the precipitation band as is the European model, the ECMWF as well as having it cold enough to snow.

So now I'm in a bit of a waffle situation...but I'm leaning towards Ottawa getting a few centimeters of snow on Wednesday.

Env. Can. backtrack

Their current forecast for Monday:   Sunny. High minus 1.

Env. Can. jumping the gun

Env. Can. is currently calling for snow on Monday:  Periods of snow. Low minus 8. High minus 1.

Ahh...no.

Snow will go by to north tomorrow with a trailing cold front that will bring showers ending in flurries on Sunday.  Monday will cool with very little in the way of precip.   Snow will pass by to the south on Wednesday.  

So no significant snow for us over the next few days.

Extreme weather

You may have seen news articles about an IPCC report regarding extreme weather.    Most news articles I've seen put a Catastrophic AGW spin on it, i.e. we're all going drown/bake/die of thirst etc etc etc.   However, that isn't really in the report.

First a preface.  Extreme weather happens all the time.  It has been part of the climate since it was created. Increasing extreme weather only exists in the Global Climate Models (GCMs).  Actual observations have not shown any increasing global trends that co-relate with increasing global temperatures.   I have shown this for floods, droughts, tropical storms, heat waves, etc.

Here is a couple comments regarding this new report:
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2011/11/leaked-text-of-ipcc-extreme-report.html
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/18/climate-panel-issues-report-on-extreme-weather-and-climate-change/
http://www.thegwpf.org/science-news/4369-natural-variability-to-dominate-weather-events-over-coming-20-30-years.html

Snow shower happening right now

Just looked out a window and saw snow falling.  Time to change my profile picture.

The west's cold snap

Picture of it at it's predicted worst, Sunday morning:

The short and long terms prospects of cold...

I've had a few comments on how mild our weather has been this fall overall, and whether we're going to pay for it later...

Yes, to date we have had a very moderate fall.  Of late, we've had cool periods but they are few and short as pieces of the main pool of cool in the west come our way.   Speaking of the west, the regions of Alaska Yukon, down to BC and AB will be getting very cold over the next week as cold air pours in from the Arctic.    For example, Fort Nelson will get down to -25C this week (normal is -18), Whitehorse will get down to -27C(normal is -14).   A piece of the cool air will come our way this Wednesday through Friday and again next Sunday through Tuesday.   But the pattern is transitory, nothing sticking our area for any significant period of time.

Whether we will pay for the mild weather later?...Maybe... I we will see December have a sustained cold period for our area, but don't be surprised that we will get a snowfall before November's end that sticks around until the end of winter.   We will have another La Nina winter as was last year.  And last year was a disappointing winter for eastern ontario snow geese.  So I am expecting not a lot of cold and snow in the latter part of the winter.

Update:  a graphical view of the North American temperature anomolies over the next 8 days (source).  Note this is a deviation from normal graphic, not actual temperature.

Winter weather

Will have to wait...As expected the storm at the middle of the month is turning more wet than white.   We may see some flakes this weekend as a week clipper passes to the north but nothing significant is currently in the cards until later this month.

For Remembrance Day observances, it's looking chilly with possible flakes in the air so bundle up.

Some recommended reading...

If you can overlook the potshots at religon, the opinions expressed regarding climate change reflect mine own.   Article here.

Author of the article is Matt Ridley, author of this book and this blog.

In the shorter term...

We will be mild until a cold front (causing showers) comes through on Thursday bringing a brief 2-day cold shot.  It looks to be a nice weekend as it will start to warm up again on Saturday (warmer than Env. Can is currently saying: 6 and 7 C for Sat. Sun. respectively) with no precip.  Another cold front comes through on Monday.  
Currently it looks like next Wednesday and Thursday will have a system coming through but mostly rain, with perhaps snow on the backend of it.
And yes, the storm at midmonth is still on the table: