Monday, November 14, 2011

The short and long terms prospects of cold...

I've had a few comments on how mild our weather has been this fall overall, and whether we're going to pay for it later...

Yes, to date we have had a very moderate fall.  Of late, we've had cool periods but they are few and short as pieces of the main pool of cool in the west come our way.   Speaking of the west, the regions of Alaska Yukon, down to BC and AB will be getting very cold over the next week as cold air pours in from the Arctic.    For example, Fort Nelson will get down to -25C this week (normal is -18), Whitehorse will get down to -27C(normal is -14).   A piece of the cool air will come our way this Wednesday through Friday and again next Sunday through Tuesday.   But the pattern is transitory, nothing sticking our area for any significant period of time.

Whether we will pay for the mild weather later?...Maybe... I we will see December have a sustained cold period for our area, but don't be surprised that we will get a snowfall before November's end that sticks around until the end of winter.   We will have another La Nina winter as was last year.  And last year was a disappointing winter for eastern ontario snow geese.  So I am expecting not a lot of cold and snow in the latter part of the winter.

Update:  a graphical view of the North American temperature anomolies over the next 8 days (source).  Note this is a deviation from normal graphic, not actual temperature.

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