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| Temperature Anomolies Dec 26, 2012 to Jan 1, 2013 |
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| Temperature Anomolies, Jan 2, 2013 to Jan 8, 2013 |
Thursday, January 10, 2013
Some global temperature perspective
Huh, what???
The latest Special Weather Statement from Env. Can. (at bottom) reinforces my impression that they need to look at real world data and not just the output of computer models. Stick your head out the door for crying out loud. I highlighted the section that really got me. Give your head a shake!!! As of yesterday, there was more than a foot or two of snow over most of eastern Ontario (Ottawa, Kemptville, Cornwall). The likelihood that most or all going to melt in the next couple days given the hard freeze tonight, the fairly significant snow cover south of us and moderate rainfall amounts, is next to none. A snowball has a better chance surviving hell.
==discussion==
A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into Southern Ontario.
Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over regions in Southern Ontario. There is also very good potential of freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region. A freezing rain warning has been issued for those regions.
On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas, making it feel more like late April.
As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
==discussion==
A low pressure system developing over Oklahoma this afternoon is expected to track northeast towards the Great Lakes tonight and Friday. This low will bring very mild and fairly moist air into Southern Ontario.
Current indications suggest rain fall amounts in the 5 to 10 mm range will be common on Friday with local amounts up to 20 mm mainly over regions in Southern Ontario. There is also very good potential of freezing rain for Eastern Ontario on Friday, especially along the Ottawa Valley including the National Capital Region. A freezing rain warning has been issued for those regions.
On Saturday very mild air ushered in by southerly winds will help temperatures rise to 10 to 13 degrees in many areas. Temperatures in a few locales may reach the mid teens especially in snow-free areas, making it feel more like late April.
As a result of the very mild temperatures, a number of new maximum temperature records may be set Friday and Saturday. Most if not all of the snow on the ground across Southern Ontario and in Eastern
Ontario will melt by Saturday.
The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca
End
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Saturday and beyond
Env. Can today INCREASED its forecast high for Saturday to +11C !! I still have my severe doubts as none of the US based and Euro models are seeing it.
As an aside, the GFS has backed off from it's predicted depth and duration of the cold snap coming to our area, even in its Ensembles. However the Euro is still cold.
As an aside, the GFS has backed off from it's predicted depth and duration of the cold snap coming to our area, even in its Ensembles. However the Euro is still cold.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Rest of the week into next..
A mild week with a skiff of snow tomorrow followed by a very brief cool down Wednesday night/Thursday morning.
Friday will likely see some rain showers, possibly beginning as freezing drizzle.
Saturday will be the warmest day. Env. Can. currently has +9C as the forecasted high. I don't think we will get that high. I think we will get to only to the mid single digits. We have our deep snow cover to thank for keeping our temperatures moderated.
The slow moving cold front will come in Sunday/Monday. Multiple "waves" along the front will be laying down some precipitation. Currently our best chance looks be on Monday for a few cms of snow.
Next week it will progressively get colder with both the GFS and Euro giving us temperatures well into the -20 to -30C range by the weekend.
Friday will likely see some rain showers, possibly beginning as freezing drizzle.
Saturday will be the warmest day. Env. Can. currently has +9C as the forecasted high. I don't think we will get that high. I think we will get to only to the mid single digits. We have our deep snow cover to thank for keeping our temperatures moderated.
The slow moving cold front will come in Sunday/Monday. Multiple "waves" along the front will be laying down some precipitation. Currently our best chance looks be on Monday for a few cms of snow.
Next week it will progressively get colder with both the GFS and Euro giving us temperatures well into the -20 to -30C range by the weekend.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Shades of '85
The latest GFS Ensembles have an day 8-14 analogue 96% (!) correlation with the end of January, 1985. If so, brrrrrr. If that's the case, a polar vortex settles over Hudson Bay and delivers a stream of cold Arctic air.
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| Jan 28th to Feb 3rd, 1985 |
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Getting colder...
GFS Ensembles prediction of temperature anomalies in the 5-10 day period, then the 10-15 period. Poor suckers on the prairies. (courtesy of Weatherbell).
Friday, January 4, 2013
January thaw?
It's starting to look like we will get a 5+ day period of mild temps starting next week, ending about mid-month or so (differences between Euro and GFS). There likely will be some rain-to-snow storms in there as well....The last 1/2 of the month will be very cold starting the plains spreading to the east.
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Longer range look
Both the GFS and Euro are showing a storm next weekend coming through the Great Lakes (track TBD) after which there is debate on temperature trends. The GFS is much colder with Western cold spreading East such that much of Canada is colder than normal (below curtesy of Weatherbell). The Euro essentially ends winter for us. Well not literally, but it has only western Canada colder than normal for the next few weeks.
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