Snow in the air...

Snow has been reported flying in Bell's Corners and Barrhaven this afternoon.   Likely won't be measurable though.

First snow predictions

Here is your next opportunity for prediction/guessing game.   When do you think Ottawa's first snow will come as measured at Ottawa Airport, amounts of trace or more?   Leave your predictions in the comments and please let me know who you are.

On a related note, BC's ski hills will be getting a whole lot whiter over the next couple weeks as a trough finally brings precipitation and cooler temps to the region.

First frost prediction winner is..

Anonymous.

Of two, count 'em, two predictions, mine (Sept. 22nd) and Anonymous (Sept. 26th), Anonymous gets the bragging rights of being less wrong than me.

Next up, first snow...

Next weekend temperatures

Actually a five day view of temperature anomolies from Oct 11 thru 15th.

First from NOAA.  Note though as I've mentioned in the past, this ain't a temperature "forecast", this is a probability forecast for above, neutral or below normal temperatures.  It doesn't indicate how much above or below the temperatures will be.

Next is from the GFS model, giving actual temperature departures from normal, courtesy of Weatherbell.

Thanksgiving and next week

Thanksgiving weekend is going to be cool with the odd shower here and there, maybe some non-sticking white stuff.  I think we will break the freezing mark at some point this weekend.
There will be a brief warmup on Tuesday, but Wednesday looks to be ugly and continuing cool until next weekend beyond which the models wildly diverge.

Current forecast for Kenora

Winter storm warning in effect.

Today:  Periods of rain changing to wet snow at times heavy this morning. Snowfall amount 10 cm. Wind northeast 20 km/h becoming north 40 gusting to 60 this afternoon. Temperature steady near plus 2.

 

Tonight: Snow. Amount 5 to 10 cm. Wind north 40 km/h gusting to 60. Low zero.

 

Friday: Snow changing to wet snow late in the morning. Amount 2 to 4 cm. Wind north 30 km/h. High plus 2.

 

Temperature departures next week

According to the GFS Ensemble forecast.

Don't want to be in Kenora on Friday.

Just sayin'. 

Yes that is in inches of snow.  Even if that is half true, not nice.

Less than pleasant Thanksgiving weekend..

Cold front coming on Friday and another one on Saturday will bring chilly damp conditions with a chance of the f-word (flurries!) Saturday and Sunday evening.   We should see our first sub-zero temperatures this coming weekend.    The models are not quite in agree with the timing and direction but generally speaking Sunday looks to be the worst of the long weekend.

The following weekend doesn't look too nice either.

Friday frivolity