Friday, August 23, 2013

So about next week...

4:30 PM update:  latest Env. Can. Belleville forecast has now a 30% PoP and 40%PoP for Monday and Wednesday respectively.  They're catching up!

Next week, me and the fam are camping once again at Sandbanks PP, near Belleville, ON.  So this morning I check the Env. Can. forecast for Belleville:

Issued: 11:00 AM EDT Friday 23 August 2013
Today, 23 August:  Mainly sunny. High 24. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight, 23 August: Clear. Low 11.
Saturday, 24 August:  Sunny. High 25.
Sunday, 25 August: Sunny. Low 15. High 25.
Monday, 26 August: A mix of sun and cloud. Low 17. High 25.
Tuesday, 27 August: A mix of sun and cloud. Low 17. High 25.
Wednesday, 28 August: Sunny. Low 18. High 25.
Thursday, 29 August: Sunny. Low 16. High 24.

Awesome right?  

Not so fast.  As you may know, I'm a little skeptical about Env. Can. forecasts.  So I checked the output from various models, including the Canadian.  The REALLY curious thing is that the above forecast doesn't even agree with the Env Can. model.  It shows precipitation in the Belleville area Sunday afternoon/evening and Monday night/early Tuesday..

Sunday Evening

Tuesday morning

Most other models are showing precipitation as well, but with significant timing differences at this point, though none are showing any precip in the Belleville area until early Monday morning at the earliest.   
Beyond that, the models are all over the place.  The Euro has another precip event on Wednesday while the GFS doesn't have much of anything after Tuesday.   The issue is that the precipitation is caused by pieces of "energy" circling a ridge in the central portion of the continent.  The mid to northern prairies are going to be in a heatwave situation next week and the following.  Southern and eastern Ontario will be on the periphery of this ridge and thus the jet stream will be carrying "energy" toward us but the exact path is indeterminate at this point.  
The main point is that the rosey scenario painted by Env. Can is wrong...unfortunately.   I'm going to have to do some major tarping. 

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