Okay, an appetizer maybe...

In transitional periods between seasons, predicting the weather is especially difficult.   One can only have a high degree of confidence in the models 3-5 days out as opposed to a week or so.

Case in point is this week. Late last week models to were showing a storm path going NE over the western lakes, putting us in the warm and wet zone.  Now there is a backdoor cold front that provided the change in predicted high temps this week and a blocking high pressure system moving in to our north forcing storm on a more easterly path.   The Euro was the first to show it, now the GFS, UKMET and Canadian have joined in.

So for Friday, the Euro is showing a 6+ inches of snow for much of south/central and eastern Ontario.  The GFS is show a mix of ice and snow.   Regardless, it's looking messy.

Stayed tuned...and try not to kill the messenger.