Friday, May 25, 2012

Next weekend

While I don't disagree with the "inference" made by this day 6-10 map from NOAA, it isn't an actual forecast.  It is a probability scheme that can't be falsified.   For example, let's take the Ottawa region which looks to be in the 50-60% chance region of cooler than normal temps.   If however, the temperatures turn out to be above normal in reality, the map is still not wrong because according to the map there is 40 - 50% chance that Ottawa will be at or above normal.   The probabilities have to add up to 100%.
This non-forecast is a bane to many meteorologist because it gives misleading inferences and can't be shown to be incorrect.

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