Flash freeze and Clipper

Today's high temperature of  ~ +5C will occur early this evening, approximately 8:00 PM, .   By 10 PM, the temperature is predicted to have dropped to -2C, -5 by midnight, -10 by morning.  This is accompanied by high winds.   Bare surfaces may dry up before the freeze but any accumulation of puddles will freeze up and snow banks will become rock solid.

Tuesday will see an Alberta clipper coming through, dropping approximately 5cm of snow (map courtesy of Weatherbell)

What a difference a week makes...

More western rain coming...

Lots of fires burning in western Canada and Alaska:

 

The rain over the last couple days has had some effect on the fire danger:

 

There is more rain over next week for the affected regions so hopefully more fire containment can occur.

BC/Alberta/Praire fire relief

GFS (and Euro) calling for significant rain in the prairie provinces over the next week or so.  That should help fire fighting efforts.

Texas drought

Extreme drought erased in Texas as rainfall reaches many time normal.

Texas drought update.

Previous post here.   Three maps to show today. The first two maps show the progression of drought status.  Compare these with the one in the previous post.   The third maps is the predicted rainfall over the next four days.   Most of the deep red in Texas and Kansas will be eliminated.

California is still suffering though.  That'll change when the El Nino moisture kicks up.

Texas drought

The long term drought in Texas has had some mention in the media over the last few months with good reason.  It is severe.  But nothing is permanent in weather other than the fact that it changes.   The first map is the drought map.   The second map is the amount of rain Texas has received over the last week.

Env. Can. stick yer head out the window.

Their latest forecast for Ottawa, released at 3:30 PM, a half an hour ago at time of writing:

Tonight, 16 May: Rain ending after midnight then cloudy. Low 9.

Anyone sticking their head out the window would know that the rain has already pretty much stop.  Even looking at the Env. Can. radar image would give a clue...

Still no agreement...

Among the models on whether we will get snow in the first half of next week.    The Euro is now the most gung-ho, the GFS second and now the Canadian is mostly missing us...  We are in for some rain on Sunday   Whether we get snow is dependent on whether the third disturbance that's riding the front will be timed with the arrival of cold air.

I don't agree with it entirely but for what it's worth, here is the Env. Can statement (see highlight):

3:21 PM EDT Friday 11 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:

• Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
• Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe

Significant rainfall from late Saturday night to early Tuesday morning.

Several disturbances with associated significant rainfall are expected to move across Southern Ontario in the next 3 days. There is still considerable uncertainty to determine exactly how much rain each disturbance will bring. However, indications at this time suggest the total rainfall amounts from late Saturday night to early Tuesday morning could be very high. Regions north of a line from Southern Lake Huron to the Ottawa and Prescott regions could end up with 50 mm to 75 mm. Rainfall amounts are expected to drop off sharply south of this line.

Please consult your local conservation authority or Ontario ministry of natural resources district office for more information on spring flood conditions.

In addition, rain is expected to switch to snow Monday night over regions east of Georgian Bay. Algonquin and Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet regions could end up with 5 to 10 cm of snow by Tuesday morning.

Environment Canada meteorologists will continue to monitor the developing systems closely and update this statement when necessary.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

Rain then snow...

We are in for a bunch of rain Friday evening into the overnight.  It may start as snow briefly but it will be primarily a rain event.

Can't say the same for next Monday night.  If current model projections hold true, we will wake up to heavy wet snow next Tuesday morning, a sloppy mess.

As always, stay tuned.

Quick morning post

Today/tonight's snow/rain.  It's going to be sloppy.  The majority of the snow will be to the north of us in the higher elevations of the Gatineau hills.  The rain/snow line will over Ottawa tonight as temperatures increase.  As a result I don't think we get as much snow as currently predicted by Env. Can (5-10cm).  TWN is more in line with my thinking with 2-5 cms.

For Saturday, things are continuing to line up for 10cm + snow fall Saturday morning.  I think Env. Can is out to lunch with its rain or snow forecast as I (and TWN) think it's all snow.

Flash freeze...

Most everything is covered in ice this morning even though it's several degrees above zero... But the cold is coming.  The cold front has reached Peterborough which has dropped at least 5 degrees in the last two hours.  I'm guessing our temps will start dropping by noon.

Ice rain in Ottawa

As of 10:00 PM Sunday, it is ice raining.  Has been for a while given the good coat so far on my car.   It is -4C.  Question is whether it gets above 0C by morning.

Blegh!!!

3:45PM Update... holding out for the Euro who's still giving us mostly snow...

Tomorrow's snow start in the morning.  It's now looking like 3-6 inches by Saturday morning.
Sunday's storm is getting uglier and unglier.   I keep hoping for a correction south on the models but the actual trend on Sunday's storm track is north.  Which puts us in an ice situation on top of snow, hence the title of this post.  As an aside, the storm is moving too quickly for another '98 Ice storm situation.

Be thankful it's only rain

The precipitation we are getting over the next few days is due to a system that is currently giving a blizzard the US midwest.

Like I said, be thankful it's only rain.  It could be worse.