Alternative energy...

Is not the answer to the climate change "problem".

And we wonder why our energy bills are so high...

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/30/renewable-energy-in-perspective-solar-and-wind-power/

Unfortunately Ontario has similar issues, hence our power bill...
http://www.ieso.ca/Pages/Power-Data/Supply.aspx

Texas drought update.

Previous post here.   Three maps to show today. The first two maps show the progression of drought status.  Compare these with the one in the previous post.   The third maps is the predicted rainfall over the next four days.   Most of the deep red in Texas and Kansas will be eliminated.

California is still suffering though.  That'll change when the El Nino moisture kicks up.

Climate Alarmism du jour...

You may have noticed recent news articles about collapsing Antarctic icesheets.   Here I present some graphs and a map as counterpoint.  Please tell me how decreasing sea temperatures (first graph), steadily increasing sea ice levels (second graph and map) and stable air temperatures can co-exist with an apparent melting glacier???   Things that make you go hmmmmm.

What if...

I've been meaning to post this for a while.

What if this happened in this decade or this year...   The Global Warming/Climate Change/Climate Disruption alarmists/fanatics would have a hey day.   Just sayin'.

Super Typhoon Haiyan, alarmism vs realism

Is this storm bad?  Yes.
Is this storm a disaster for the Philippines?  Absolutely.
Is this storm the strongest of the season and one of the strongest of the satellite era?  Very likely.
Is this storm going be similar to Katrina with respect to the symbolism of the effects of Global Warming?  Definitely.

Some articles, oldest to newest.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/07/super-typhoon-haiyan-one-of-strongest-storms-ever-heads-for-philippines/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/09/super-typhoon-haiyanyolanda-another-overhyped-storm-that-didnt-match-early-reports/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/10/bjorn-lomborg-on-haiyanyolanda/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/10/tropical-cyclone-heat-potential-its-all-in-the-presentation/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/10/an-ethical-challenge-for-greg-laden-put-your-money-where-your-mouth-is/

Snicker...

MSM is johnny-come-lately to the story..my posts:
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/08/tropical-storm-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-storm-season.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/tropical-season-update.html
http://yfnwg.blogspot.ca/2013/09/update-to-tropical-season-update.html

More IPCC report reactions

http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/marotzkes-broken-promise/
http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/30/ipcc-disappears-the-discrepancy/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/28/ipcc-diagnosis-permanent-paradigm-paralysis/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/30/ipccs-pause-logic/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/ipcc-solar-variations-dont-matter/
http://judithcurry.com/2013/10/01/negotiating-the-ipcc-spm/
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/09/27/kelly-mcparland-the-uns-latest-climate-change-report-could-serve-to-close-the-door-on-windbaggery/
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/09/30/ipcc-climate-global-warming/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/ipcc-we-dont-need-no-stinking-climate-sensitivity/
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/09/the-global-warming-they-fear-is-not-based-upon-physical-first-principles/
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.ca/2013/09/five-points-on-ipcc-report-wonky-long.html

From the last article:
"5. There is not a strong scientific basis for claiming a discernible effect of human-caused climate change on hurricanes, floods, tornadoes or drought."

What's left for CAGW?  Maybe only the AGW part, in part....

New Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) from the IPCC

With the MSM falling over themselves to proclaim how certain scientists are that man is causing global warming...

Some reactions:
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/27/95/
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2013/09/27/9000-nobel-pretenders/
http://www.staatvanhetklimaat.nl/2013/09/27/ar5-gives-no-best-estimate-for-climate-sensitivity-breaks-with-a-long-tradition-good-news-is-hidden-from-policy-makers/
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/9/27/thoughts-on-the-spm.html
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/side-by-side-comparison-of-draft-and-final-ipcc-ar5-spm-on-warming-plateau-and-attribution/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/ipcc-fails-to-come-clean-over-global-temperature-standstill/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/09/27/new-ipcc-climate-report-already-obsolete-2/

I think it also helpful to note that there is a much less emphasis on GHG (greenhouse gases) such as CO2, but also on "other" anthroprogenic changes.  As touched on by Judy Curry post, what will the IPCC say when the current 10 year negative trend (not pause) extends out to 15 or 20 years (as I think it will)?  Will they admit that they were wrong?...not bloody likely.

As I comment in the national post article: This report is out of date already, stillborn, as recent studies that didn't make the deadline for incorporation into this report ARE cast doubt on the severity of AGW. The only way that the IPCC can raise their certainty is by being more certain about a more vague criteria...

But one of my favourite reaction is Ross McKitrick's comment here:

SPM in a nutshell: Since we started in 1990 we were right about the Arctic, wrong about the Antarctic, wrong about the tropical troposphere, wrong about the surface, wrong about hurricanes, wrong about the Himalayas, wrong about sensitivity, clueless on clouds and useless on regional trends. And on that basis we’re 95% confident we’re right.

May "meh" season

Tis the season of "meh", the season in which nothing much happens weather-wise, placid May.   The time for major snowstorms is generally done for major population areas and tropical storm season gets revved up next season.

So to pass the time, I thought I'd pass along a website where you can see all kinds of climatic data in a graphical format.   I will add the link to my sidebar.  Peruse through atmospheric, ocean, solar, etc. data from various data sets with comparisons between.    You can see for yourself that by looking at actual data as opposed to computer models, the sceptical side for the climate change debate have plenty of reasons to be sceptical.

Polar Bears, Part III

Rumours of drowning polar bears are greatly exaggerated.   This flies in the face of CAGW propaganda like Al Gore's "The Inconvenient Truth" and documentaries like "Planet Earth" which depicts a bear swimming and swimming until he reaches shore but is too weak to hunt some elephant seals and dies.   I nearly threw out my copy of Planet Earth when I saw that BS.

Previous Polar Bear posts here and here.

Polar Bears

Still doing fine. 

Previous polar bear post here.

The March Heatwave

NOAA has released their preliminary analysis of the March Heat Wave.   They call the event a Black Swan event, that is an event that has an extremely low probability, a very high impact, and only retrospective predictability, ie limited, if any, prospective predictability.   Unfortunately, imho, they conclude with a nod to AGW with an ambiguous statement that they estimate that the magnitude of the heat wave was increased 5 to 10% by GHG effects.   I've seen similar estimates for the 2011 Texas drought but there is no way to prove or measure that effect.  So these estimates is purely based on model outputs, not on observations.

Found the button!

Online version found here.
Just need to use it here.

Couple of great posts by RPJ

I wish I had one of these buttons.  
Btw Dorothy, Kansas is just as dangerous for you.

Land cover/use change

Above is a graphical representation of how land masses have had their cover type and uses changed over the course of the last few hundred years, especially in the last one hundred years. 

At this time, I will remind readers that the only reasons CO2 is being blamed for AGW is that
- it is known to be a "greenhouse" gas,
- it has been increasing in the atmosphere, especially in the last 100 years and
- there has been a global temperature (GMST) increase of less than two degrees in that time period as well. 

So there is a moderate (not a strong) co-relation between atmospheric CO2 levels and GMST, plus the "greenhouse" theory plus model outputs and there's your Global Warming scaremongering about the CO2 strawman.  

Many alarmist climate "scientists" think CO2 is the single most important forcing that's causes global warming/climate change/climate disruption/whatever have you.  But there is growing contingent of science that think that Land cover/use change has as large or larger impact on the climate as CO2 (RPS has been banging this drum forever with little impact).  It has effects on albedo, wind patterns, boundry layers, carbon sink/source values, etc. and etc.   Definitely not an insignificant role.

Confirmation of what I've been saying.

Here is confirmation of what I've been posting and telling people.   From an actual meteorologist who also happens to believe in AGW.  Here is a excerpt of his blog post:

Why did this happen?
It may be easy for someone to go and say that it was just global warming or La Nina, but it is not that easy. We are looking at several factors that just happen to come together for an extended period to produce this pattern. Some of those factors are.......
1. Unusually sustained, record positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation produced stronger west to east jet stream into southern Canada and the northern U.S. which spread Pacific air across the continent and trapped the Arctic air far to the north.
2. North Atlantic Oscillation mostly in a positive phase. (lack of blocking)
3. Stronger western Atlantic high pressure ridge.
4. Sea ice?
5. Lack of snow cover from the Prairies to the eastern U.S. allowed cold air masses to modify as they tracked south and east. The darker, bare ground also absorbs more heat than snow/ice cover.
6. La Nina played some role, but not sure it was as much as we thought.
7. Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the Great Lakes and off the East Coast.
In terms of global warming, we have to remember that this is just one season over a relatively small part of the Earth (North America). Yes, the planet is warming, but we just do not have enough data to link this past winter to global warming. Now, if we see a steady increase in winters like this from North America to Asia over the next few decades then we may be able to establish a more concrete link.

Everybody on the bandwagon!

It's a good time to be a weather enthusiast because everybody is talking about the weather.   And there is plenty to talk about... Well actually, only one thing right now in our neck of the woods and that is the balmy temperatures (we won't mention the snowstorm in Arizona).  We are having May and June like temperatures.   Records are being blasted and beaten like a rented mule, left, right and center.   And these positive temp anomalies will continue for a while, albeit reduced somewhat by the end of the month in certain areas.

Naturally, the question comes:  is this Global Warming?  Some would predictably say yes...  I would say no, again predictably.   Climate/weather always changes and unique circumstances can always occur.   If you remember back in my December 22nd post, I commented how we were in a relatively unique atmospheric weather situation.   That continued throughout the winter.  Alaska had its coldest January on record.  Eastern Europe had record cold and snows in February as did Northern China.  But we had warm temperatures and a lack of snowstorms, especially in the eastern half of the N. American Continent.   As a result we have a lack of snowcover (4th lowest N.America winter on record) and record high Great Lake temperatures.   So any strong southerly flow of air will be un-moderated, un-cooled and ripe for breaking records.   And that is what is happening big time. 

So both the current AND preceding weather patterns are responsible for our current weather.  Enjoy it.  It may lead to a cooler than normal summer.

Update Mar.22nd:  I've added a couple links to show my points about a global view of weather.

This winter...from NASA

Funnily enough, nary a word about AGW or Climate change, just two naturally occurring phenomenon, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-snow.html

Global Temp snapshot

Lest any of you think our recent warm temperatures are a global phenomenon (click to embiggen):