As implied by my post yesterday, the models are trying to figure out what to do with a clash of air masses next week, one being cold and dry from the Arctic and another moist and warm from the south. It starts in the midwest and works its way east this coming weekend so that by late Sunday a mix of precipitation may be starting.
Enjoy the warmer than normal temps the last half of this week.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Monday, April 7, 2014
Env. Can. weather statement
See highlight.
10:00 AM EDT Monday 07 April 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
Special weather statement in effect for:
- Ottawa North - Kanata - Orléans
- Ottawa South - Richmond - Metcalfe
A moisture-laden Texas low is setting its sights on Southern Ontario.
The disturbance expected to affect Southern Ontario is currently over Western Kentucky and will intensify and track toward the Lower Great Lakes today. The most likely trajectory is across Ohio to Lake Ontario by Tuesday morning. Rain is expected to develop over parts of Southern Ontario this afternoon, reaching Georgian Bay this evening.
A significant general rainfall of 15 to 25 mm is likely over much of Southern and Eastern Ontario with the higher amounts likely closer to lakes Erie and Ontario. Rainfall warnings have been issued northeast of Lake Ontario where 25 to 35 mm of rain are forecast.
The rain will likely change to a heavy wet snow this evening mainly over the higher terrain of the Dundalk and Haliburton Highlands. A significant accumulation of 5 to 10 centimetres appears likely in these areas before it tapers off early Tuesday. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially over the Bancroft through Algonquin Park area, as well as the higher ground southwest of Collingwood including flesherton, Singhampton and Shelburne. Snowfall warnings may be required.
On a more spring-like note, the warmest weather of the season is likely on Thursday to the south of Georgian Bay, quickly erasing any memory of the snow on Monday night. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper teens, but will likely be more muted east of Georgian Bay.
A significant general rainfall of 15 to 25 mm is likely over much of Southern and Eastern Ontario with the higher amounts likely closer to lakes Erie and Ontario. Rainfall warnings have been issued northeast of Lake Ontario where 25 to 35 mm of rain are forecast.
The rain will likely change to a heavy wet snow this evening mainly over the higher terrain of the Dundalk and Haliburton Highlands. A significant accumulation of 5 to 10 centimetres appears likely in these areas before it tapers off early Tuesday. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially over the Bancroft through Algonquin Park area, as well as the higher ground southwest of Collingwood including flesherton, Singhampton and Shelburne. Snowfall warnings may be required.
On a more spring-like note, the warmest weather of the season is likely on Thursday to the south of Georgian Bay, quickly erasing any memory of the snow on Monday night. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper teens, but will likely be more muted east of Georgian Bay.
Did my own waffling..
When asked at a party last night whether the snow flakes we saw Saturday morning was the last snow of the season. Very hesitantly, as it was a hostile crowd (to winter weather), I said that there was a potential for more. Can you blame me when I am still seeing episodes like this appearing on the models (current GFS precip type map for next Monday night):
Wrt tonight's precipitation event, is looking like it's another mostly rain for us. There is a chance we will get some wet flurries to start but the snow will primarily be hitting areas north of us more, eg Algonquin park and Petawawa.
Wrt tonight's precipitation event, is looking like it's another mostly rain for us. There is a chance we will get some wet flurries to start but the snow will primarily be hitting areas north of us more, eg Algonquin park and Petawawa.
Friday, April 4, 2014
Model waffle
Monday night/Tuesday morning: GFS has some snow, Euro more and the Canadian has none (though it should given its storm track forecast).
It is looking like Monday overnight into Tuesday morning will be messy, a rain/wet snow system...
It is looking like Monday overnight into Tuesday morning will be messy, a rain/wet snow system...
Wednesday, April 2, 2014
You have entered...
The waffle zone.
The models are doing the cha-cha with the storm track so now on the GFS and Euro, the snow has mostly disappeared for next Tuesday and has rain. The Canadian still has the snow track.
As always. stayed tuned.
The models are doing the cha-cha with the storm track so now on the GFS and Euro, the snow has mostly disappeared for next Tuesday and has rain. The Canadian still has the snow track.
As always. stayed tuned.
Great Lake Ice update
It's going to have implications for spring and early summer temperatures. Just sayin'.
Rain then snow...
We are in for a bunch of rain Friday evening into the overnight. It may start as snow briefly but it will be primarily a rain event.
Can't say the same for next Monday night. If current model projections hold true, we will wake up to heavy wet snow next Tuesday morning, a sloppy mess.
As always, stay tuned.
Can't say the same for next Monday night. If current model projections hold true, we will wake up to heavy wet snow next Tuesday morning, a sloppy mess.
As always, stay tuned.
Tuesday, April 1, 2014
As a head's up...
The just-for-funsies may not be fun after all. The Canadian, GFS and Euro models are all showing messy weather in about a week.
It's the GFS's turn
The GFS is showing a just-for-funsies, since the Euro lost the one from yesterday:
Graphic vs text Env Can forecast...
Taking a quick look at the Env. Can. graphical representation of forecast, one would think that there is no rain coming in the next couple days and it's going to be just beautiful the whole time.
However the text portion says this:
Today, 1 April
Mainly sunny. Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Wind becoming east 20 km/h gusting to 40 late this morning. High 6. UV index 6 or high.
Tonight, 1 April
Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Wind east 20 km/h gusting to 40. Low zero.
Wednesday, 2 April
Mainly cloudy. Clearing near noon. Wind southwest 20 km/h becoming light late in the morning. High 6.
April fools?
However the text portion says this:
April fools?
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