Missing us by thaaaat much....again.

Sick of the US NE and the Maritimes getting pummelled again and again.

24 hr snowfall on Monday.

Env. Can. flip

Their 3:30 PM forecast release for the weekend:

Saturday, 1 March:  Cloudy with 60 percent chance of snow. Low minus 17. High minus 3.

Sunday, 2 March:  A mix of sun and cloud. Low minus 10. High minus 7.

Just sayin'.

I really don't get Env. Can....

Here is their weekend forecast issued 8:52 AM today:

Saturday, 1 March:  Sunny. Low minus 18. High minus 5.

Sunday, 2 March:  Sunny. Low minus 9. High minus 5.

You would never know that their own Canadian model has about a 1/2 inch liquid equivalent precipitation in that time period which would give us a few inches of snow.

The other models also show precipitation during that time period, albeit with slightly different timing and intensity.

The Weather Network does have the snow in their forecast.

Monday's bigger storm has slid south of us on the modelling...:(

March temps..

Updated with Accuweather's March temp forecast...

As there doesn't seem to be much in store, snow wise, for our area until early next week.  There will be coatings to a few cms Wednesday and Thursday but nothing significant.   As indicated in previous posts, the Feb close out will be cold and the beginning of March will be cold.  But what does the various parties say about March temps in total?

NOAA




CFS

Accuweather

WeatherBell

another quick one

One of the effects of the shifting pattern is where the storms go.   There will be a powerful storm heading north passing over Lake Superior Thursday night into Friday (snow map below), well to the west of us.  It's such a powerful storm that the associated cold front is like a big giant comma with the leading edge well east of the storm center (second map below).   So for us, we may see the precipitation start as snow late Thursday, change over to rain and or freezing rain and possibly change back to snow briefly late Friday as the cold front comes through.   I think Saturday will struggle to get above OC (Env Can and TWN have highs of 3 and 2 respectively on Sat).

Late next week will be very cold.

Snow, warmup and beyond

Updated snow map for tonight/tomorrow.

Will warm up significantly this week until Friday.  Warmest will be Thursday night with some rain.

February will go out and March will come in like a polar bear...

Day 5 to 10

Day 10 to 15

Rough snow map for monday's storm

Most of the models have the storm going south of us and weaker.  We'll be lucky to get 5cm again.

Another quick update..

Yesterday was interesting.  While I hadn't had a chance to look at the weather in a day or so, the east coast storm had apparently blown up on the short range models, speading the precipitation farther north and west from originally thought.   So when a subscriber told me of the current forecast, I couldn't believe it until I went and looked.   Hence last night's post.

Moving on, to Monday's storm.  Yesterday, the models had Monday's storms pretty much in the same place and intensity.  Now?  Poof.  Well not exactly.  The Euro is still giving us the most intense system with up to 6".    The Canadian has gone south with it and the GFS is much weaker and dispersed.  Who to believe.

Stay tuned.

map update

I'm seeing about 5 cms, maybe more if ratios are high..precip shield from east coast storm spreading north and west... map from Accuweather...

 

Monday's storm is a bigger deal than this for us..

 



Quick update on the two storms...

Updated map:

Next week Monday's system is on the Euro, GFS, and Can..  So relatively high confidence that we will get something on Monday...ish.