GFS, last man standing.

The GFS is pretty much by itself in maintaining the line of highest precip amounts over Ottawa.  Most other models, while giving Ottawa some precip, have the main line of rain going from Georgian Bay to Eastern Lake Ontario tonight into tomorrow.  Unfortunately for the GFS, the other models are more correct by the looks of the radar track.

Rooting for the GFS...

But its list of allies grows thin.   It is still the most bullish on the Thursday precipitation, dropping close to an inch of precip on our area by Friday albeit with the system less organized than it was on yesterday run.   Most other models have the energy generally south of us and weaker/more disorganized...

Along with the above "system" appearing, the Saturday system as disappeared off the models.   That's why I'm rooting for the GFS.

What's the GFS doing?

With all the T-storm action, I missed this gem from the GFS model.  All of a sudden on its 12Z run popped a system that races across central Ontario, dumping a streak of significant rain Thursday/Thursday night (see below).   It looks like it's bundling some energy together to form this system.  Other models have the energy strung out, diffusing it...

Arrrgh!

Hates it when Franktown radar goes down at crucial times....

T-storms

2:20 update:  EC Severe Thunderstorm Warning.  Fairly certain most of us are going to get hit.  Pembroke just go hit and it headed our way.
12:20 update:  EC has put out a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

The timing and conditions may come together that we actually may get some significant thunderstorms today.   An approaching cool front providing cool NW winds aloft with hot humid southerly winds at the surface plus daytime solar heating makes for an unstable situation which come into the Ottawa region later this afternoon...

Here's hoping.

Summer's peak

Today we are at summer's height.  July 22, 23, 24 are, on average, the warmest days of the year for Ottawa.  I'm sure that this is generally the case for most of the Northern Hemisphere.  Our length of day has been decreasing since the Summer Solstice but with the atmospheric lag, we have only now reached the peak in temperatures, again on average.   This year, I think we peaked early on this part of the earth's surface anyway.   For the rest of the summer I don't think we will see the extreme departures from normal as the first part of the summer as "troughy-ness" settles over us...

Update to next chances of rain

Slight chance Sunday aft, better chance Monday night (where's that EC?).
Friday's rain got pushed to Saturday with the GFS more bullish on the precip than the Euro but it's still there..

Things that make you go hmmm

Looking at drought levels (high) and severe weather (low), I think I've seen a connection.   Take Kansas for example (I'm hearing the lyrics from Toto's Africa..but wrong Toto).  It has the highest annual number of tornados per area.  However it has been very dry this year.   So severe weather in summer equals thunderstorms which equals rain.   So no severe weather means drought conditions??   Something like out of the frying pan into the fire...

Next chances for rain

First chance is Monday as a weak cool front comes through.  Again that will be hit and miss with showers and t-storms.   Before then, there will a gradual warm up to above normal temps from the current below normal.

Next chance is next Friday.  Both longer range models show an actual system passing over southern Ontario rather than just a frontal boundry.  So the odds a fairly good there that we will get something.

It's hard to get good help these days

It's hard to believe EC can screw up any more.  They have mere data collection issues.  It seems the media is getting wind of this fiasco (see my comment below the article).  I've been in contact with EC officials months ago about these data issues.  Just platitudes and "we're working on it" statements in response.

T-storms

Tuesday evening update: The T-storms hit a glancing blow from Carp, Kanata to Barrhaven.   Looks like in Barrhaven we received a couple cms of rain.  There is a chance for more rain overnight.

We (in Barrhaven anyway) had a wee sprinkle of showers early this morning.   Today the main line of T-storms are south of the city.

A little bit of rain

Hoping to get some of that moisture that's headed our way for overnight tonight/tomorrow morning:

North american drought

 Last 60 days Canadian and US precipitation in percent of normal...

Looking forward

It's dry.  We're at about 50% of normal precipitation for the last 30 days.   Looking forward, there isn't much chance of significant rainfall over the next week or two.   However, at least the temperatures should be comfortable next week.

Warm temperatures vs Severe weather

One the warmest first half of the year for N. America, a below average severe weather season.  Co-relation?  Negative.